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Hydropower plans in eastern and southern Africa increase risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption

Author

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  • Declan Conway

    (London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Carole Dalin

    (London School of Economics and Political Science
    University College London)

  • Willem A. Landman

    (University of Pretoria)

  • Timothy J. Osborn

    (University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park)

Abstract

Hydropower comprises a significant and rapidly expanding proportion of electricity production in eastern and southern Africa. In both regions, hydropower is exposed to high levels of climate variability and regional climate linkages are strong, yet an understanding of spatial interdependences is lacking. Here we consider river basin configuration and define regions of coherent rainfall variability using cluster analysis to illustrate exposure to the risk of hydropower supply disruption of current (2015) and planned (2030) hydropower sites. Assuming completion of the dams planned, hydropower will become increasingly concentrated in the Nile (from 62% to 82% of total regional capacity) and Zambezi (from 73% to 85%) basins. By 2030, 70% and 59% of total hydropower capacity will be located in one cluster of rainfall variability in eastern and southern Africa, respectively, increasing the risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption in each region. Linking of nascent regional electricity sharing mechanisms could mitigate intraregional risk, although these mechanisms face considerable political and infrastructural challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Declan Conway & Carole Dalin & Willem A. Landman & Timothy J. Osborn, 2017. "Hydropower plans in eastern and southern Africa increase risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 2(12), pages 946-953, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:2:y:2017:i:12:d:10.1038_s41560-017-0037-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41560-017-0037-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Hunt, Julian David & Zakeri, Behnam & Lopes, Rafael & Barbosa, Paulo Sérgio Franco & Nascimento, Andreas & Castro, Nivalde José de & Brandão, Roberto & Schneider, Paulo Smith & Wada, Yoshihide, 2020. "Existing and new arrangements of pumped-hydro storage plants," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Michele Fioretti & Jorge Tamayo, 2021. "Saving for a Dry Day: Coal, Dams, and the Energy Transition," Working Papers hal-03389152, HAL.
    3. Falchetta, Giacomo & Gernaat, David E.H.J. & Hunt, Julian & Sterl, Sebastian, 2019. "Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review," Earth Arxiv w7rj3, Center for Open Science.
    4. Cole, Matthew A. & Elliott, Robert J.R. & Occhiali, Giovanni & Strobl, Eric, 2018. "Power outages and firm performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 150-159.
    5. Bajo-Buenestado, Raúl, 2021. "The effect of blackouts on household electrification status: Evidence from Kenya," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    6. Xinyu Han & Rongrong Li, 2019. "Comparison of Forecasting Energy Consumption in East Africa Using the MGM, NMGM, MGM-ARIMA, and NMGM-ARIMA Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-24, August.
    7. Yang, Zhikai & Liu, Pan & Cheng, Lei & Liu, Deli & Ming, Bo & Li, He & Xia, Qian, 2021. "Sizing utility-scale photovoltaic power generation for integration into a hydropower plant considering the effects of climate change: A case study in the Longyangxia of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    8. Guerra, Omar J. & Tejada, Diego A. & Reklaitis, Gintaras V., 2019. "Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for a hydro-dominated power system via stochastic optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 584-598.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1qif9fqehq930ovnr511k1el4f is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/1qif9fqehq930ovnr511k1el4f is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Roger Cremades & Hermine Mitter & Nicu Constantin Tudose & Anabel Sanchez-Plaza & Anil Graves & Annelies Broekman & Steffen Bender & Carlo Giupponi & Phoebe Koundouri & Muhamad Bahri & Sorin Cheval & , 2019. "Ten principles to integrate the water-energy-land nexus with climate services for co-producing local and regional integrated assessments," DEOS Working Papers 1915, Athens University of Economics and Business.

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