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Impacts of climate change on sub-regional electricity demand and distribution in the southern United States

Author

Listed:
  • Melissa R. Allen

    (Oak Ridge National Laboratory)

  • Steven J. Fernandez

    (University of Tennessee)

  • Joshua S. Fu

    (University of Tennessee
    Oak Ridge National Laboratory)

  • Mohammed M. Olama

    (Oak Ridge National Laboratory)

Abstract

High average temperatures lead to high regional electricity demand for cooling buildings, and large populations generally require more aggregate electricity than smaller ones do. Thus, future global climate and population changes will present regional infrastructure challenges regarding changing electricity demand. However, without spatially explicit representation of this demand or the ways in which it might change at the neighbourhood scale, it is difficult to determine which electricity service areas are most vulnerable and will be most affected by these changes. Here we show that detailed projections of changing local electricity demand patterns are viable and important for adaptation planning at the urban level in a changing climate. Employing high-resolution and spatially explicit tools, we find that electricity demand increases caused by temperature rise have the greatest impact over the next 40 years in areas serving small populations, and that large population influx stresses any affected service area, especially during peak demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Melissa R. Allen & Steven J. Fernandez & Joshua S. Fu & Mohammed M. Olama, 2016. "Impacts of climate change on sub-regional electricity demand and distribution in the southern United States," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 1(8), pages 1-9, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:1:y:2016:i:8:d:10.1038_nenergy.2016.103
    DOI: 10.1038/nenergy.2016.103
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chenghao Wang & Jiyun Song & Dachuan Shi & Janet L. Reyna & Henry Horsey & Sarah Feron & Yuyu Zhou & Zutao Ouyang & Ying Li & Robert B. Jackson, 2023. "Impacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Antweiler, Werner & Muesgens, Felix, 2024. "The new merit order: The viability of energy-only electricity markets with only intermittent renewable energy sources and grid-scale storage," Ruhr Economic Papers 1064, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Laibao Liu & Gang He & Mengxi Wu & Gang Liu & Haoran Zhang & Ying Chen & Jiashu Shen & Shuangcheng Li, 2023. "Climate change impacts on planned supply–demand match in global wind and solar energy systems," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 8(8), pages 870-880, August.
    4. Craig, Michael T. & Cohen, Stuart & Macknick, Jordan & Draxl, Caroline & Guerra, Omar J. & Sengupta, Manajit & Haupt, Sue Ellen & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Brancucci, Carlo, 2018. "A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 255-267.
    5. Guangsheng Pan & Qinran Hu & Wei Gu & Shixing Ding & Haifeng Qiu & Yuping Lu, 2021. "Assessment of plum rain’s impact on power system emissions in Yangtze-Huaihe River basin of China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Perera, A.T.D. & Khayatian, F. & Eggimann, S. & Orehounig, K. & Halgamuge, Saman, 2022. "Quantifying the climate and human-system-driven uncertainties in energy planning by using GANs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    7. Wang, Chong & Ju, Ping & Wu, Feng & Pan, Xueping & Wang, Zhaoyu, 2022. "A systematic review on power system resilience from the perspective of generation, network, and load," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    8. Cohen, Stuart M. & Dyreson, Ana & Turner, Sean & Tidwell, Vince & Voisin, Nathalie & Miara, Ariel, 2022. "A multi-model framework for assessing long- and short-term climate influences on the electric grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    9. Yaqing Sheng & Jinpeng Liu & Delin Wei & Xiaohua Song, 2021. "Heterogeneous Study of Multiple Disturbance Factors Outside Residential Electricity Consumption: A Case Study of Beijing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-22, March.
    10. Ignacio Losada Carreño & Michael T. Craig & Michael Rossol & Moetasim Ashfaq & Fulden Batibeniz & Sue Ellen Haupt & Caroline Draxl & Bri-Mathias Hodge & Carlo Brancucci, 2020. "Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 745-766, November.
    11. Li, Mingquan & Shan, Rui & Hernandez, Mauricio & Mallampalli, Varun & Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia, 2019. "Effects of population, urbanization, household size, and income on electric appliance adoption in the Chinese residential sector towards 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 293-306.
    12. Daniel C. Steinberg & Bryan K. Mignone & Jordan Macknick & Yinong Sun & Kelly Eurek & Andrew Badger & Ben Livneh & Kristen Averyt, 2020. "Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 125-139, January.
    13. Francisco Ralston Fonseca & Paulina Jaramillo & Mario Bergés & Edson Severnini, 2019. "Seasonal effects of climate change on intra-day electricity demand patterns," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 435-451, June.

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