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Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation

Author

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  • Karl-Heinz Erb

    (Institute of Social Ecology, Vienna, Alpen-Adria Universitaet Klagenfurt, Vienna, Graz)

  • Christian Lauk

    (Institute of Social Ecology, Vienna, Alpen-Adria Universitaet Klagenfurt, Vienna, Graz)

  • Thomas Kastner

    (Institute of Social Ecology, Vienna, Alpen-Adria Universitaet Klagenfurt, Vienna, Graz)

  • Andreas Mayer

    (Institute of Social Ecology, Vienna, Alpen-Adria Universitaet Klagenfurt, Vienna, Graz)

  • Michaela C. Theurl

    (Institute of Social Ecology, Vienna, Alpen-Adria Universitaet Klagenfurt, Vienna, Graz
    Research Institute of Organic Agriculture, FiBL Austria)

  • Helmut Haberl

    (Institute of Social Ecology, Vienna, Alpen-Adria Universitaet Klagenfurt, Vienna, Graz)

Abstract

Safeguarding the world’s remaining forests is a high-priority goal. We assess the biophysical option space for feeding the world in 2050 in a hypothetical zero-deforestation world. We systematically combine realistic assumptions on future yields, agricultural areas, livestock feed and human diets. For each scenario, we determine whether the supply of crop products meets the demand and whether the grazing intensity stays within plausible limits. We find that many options exist to meet the global food supply in 2050 without deforestation, even at low crop-yield levels. Within the option space, individual scenarios differ greatly in terms of biomass harvest, cropland demand and grazing intensity, depending primarily on the quantitative and qualitative aspects of human diets. Grazing constraints strongly limit the option space. Without the option to encroach into natural or semi-natural land, trade volumes will rise in scenarios with globally converging diets, thereby decreasing the food self-sufficiency of many developing regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Karl-Heinz Erb & Christian Lauk & Thomas Kastner & Andreas Mayer & Michaela C. Theurl & Helmut Haberl, 2016. "Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:7:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms11382
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11382
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    Cited by:

    1. Espinosa, Romain & Treich, Nicolas, 2020. "Moderate vs. Radical NGOs," TSE Working Papers 20-1159, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    2. Rhys Manners & Irene Blanco-Gutiérrez & Consuelo Varela-Ortega & Ana M. Tarquis, 2020. "Transitioning European Protein-Rich Food Consumption and Production towards More Sustainable Patterns—Strategies and Policy Suggestions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-20, March.
    3. Dorin, Bruno & Joly, Pierre-Benoît, 2020. "Modelling world agriculture as a learning machine? From mainstream models to Agribiom 1.0," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    4. Emma Watkins & Patrick Ten Brink & Jean-Pierre Schweitzer & Lucile Rogissart & Martin Nesbit, 2016. "Policy Mixes to Achieve Absolute Decoupling: An Ex Ante Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-17, June.
    5. Janssens, Charlotte & Havlik, Petr & Boere, Esther & Palazzo, Amanda & Mosnier, Aline & Maertens, Miet, 2021. "The African Continental Free Trade Area: Trading Africa into Sustainability?," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315895, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Kalt, Gerald & Mayer, Andreas & Haberl, Helmut & Kaufmann, Lisa & Lauk, Christian & Matej, Sarah & Röös, Elin & Theurl, Michaela C. & Erb, Karl-Heinz, 2021. "Exploring the option space for land system futures at regional to global scales: The diagnostic agro-food, land use and greenhouse gas emission model BioBaM-GHG 2.0," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 459(C).
    7. Christoph Görg & Ulrich Brand & Helmut Haberl & Diana Hummel & Thomas Jahn & Stefan Liehr, 2017. "Challenges for Social-Ecological Transformations: Contributions from Social and Political Ecology," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-21, June.
    8. Yibo Luan & Wenquan Zhu & Xuefeng Cui & Günther Fischer & Terence P. Dawson & Peijun Shi & Zhenke Zhang, 2019. "Cropland yield divergence over Africa and its implication for mitigating food insecurity," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 707-734, June.
    9. Mollie Chapman & Susanna Klassen & Maayan Kreitzman & Adrian Semmelink & Kelly Sharp & Gerald Singh & Kai M. A. Chan, 2017. "5 Key Challenges and Solutions for Governing Complex Adaptive (Food) Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-30, September.
    10. Babita Bastakoti & Dipak Khanal, 2022. "Organic Farming: A Feasible Solution To Agricultural Sustainability: A Detailed Review," INWASCON Technology Magazine(i-TECH MAG), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 4, pages 25-27, July.
    11. Schneider, Julia M. & Zabel, Florian & Schünemann, Franziska & Delzeit, Ruth & Mauser, Wolfram, 2022. "Global cropland could be almost halved: Assessment of land saving potentials under different strategies and implications for agricultural markets," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 253265, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Aghahosseini, Arman & Solomon, A.A. & Breyer, Christian & Pregger, Thomas & Simon, Sonja & Strachan, Peter & Jäger-Waldau, Arnulf, 2023. "Energy system transition pathways to meet the global electricity demand for ambitious climate targets and cost competitiveness," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    13. Elina Lehikoinen & Tuure Parviainen & Juha Helenius & Mika Jalava & Arto O. Salonen & Matti Kummu, 2019. "Cattle Production for Exports in Water-Abundant Areas: The Case of Finland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-20, February.
    14. Jäger, Hieronymus & Peratoner, Giovanni & Tappeiner, Ulrike & Tasser, Erich, 2020. "Grassland biomass balance in the European Alps: current and future ecosystem service perspectives," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    15. Goetz, Ariane & German, Laura & Hunsberger, Carol & Schmidt, Oscar, 2017. "Do no harm? Risk perceptions in national bioenergy policies and actual mitigation performance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 776-790.
    16. Bowles, Nicholas & Alexander, Samuel & Hadjikakou, Michalis, 2019. "The livestock sector and planetary boundaries: A ‘limits to growth’ perspective with dietary implications," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 128-136.
    17. Garibaldi, Lucas A. & Pérez-Méndez, Néstor, 2019. "Positive outcomes between crop diversity and agricultural employment worldwide," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
    18. Fernandez-Mena, Hugo & Gaudou, Benoit & Pellerin, Sylvain & MacDonald, Graham K. & Nesme, Thomas, 2020. "Flows in Agro-food Networks (FAN): An agent-based model to simulate local agricultural material flows," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    19. Romain Espinosa & Jan Stoop, 2021. "Do people really want to be informed? Ex-ante evaluations of information-campaign effectiveness," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(4), pages 1131-1155, December.
    20. Romain Espinosa & Nicolas Treich, 2021. "Moderate Versus Radical NGOs†," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(4), pages 1478-1501, August.
    21. Thanh-Lam Nguyen & Do Huu Tai & Lam Thanh Hien & Doan Manh Quynh & Phan Ngoc Son, 2020. "A Novel Model to Predict Plant-Based Food Choice-Empirical Study in Southern Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-25, May.

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