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Decadal trends in global grassland growth peaks and their drivers since the 1980s

Author

Listed:
  • Cuihai You

    (East China Normal University)

  • Shiping Chen

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Zhiqin Tu

    (East China Normal University)

  • Chenyu Bian

    (East China Normal University)

  • Erqian Cui

    (East China Normal University)

  • Kun Huang

    (East China Normal University)

  • Fangxiu Wan

    (East China Normal University)

  • Jiaye Ping

    (East China Normal University)

  • Ning Wei

    (Cornell University)

  • Jianyang Xia

    (East China Normal University)

Abstract

Grasslands, Earth’s most widespread terrestrial ecosystems, are vital for global carbon sequestration and food security. A key indicator of these functions is vegetation growth peak, reflecting maximum seasonal productivity. However, whether this growth peak consistently increases across global grasslands remains unknown. Here, using satellite-derived vegetation data from 1982 to 2021, we reveal a widespread increase in grassland growth peaks, with 71% (20/28) IPCC climate regions exhibiting significant trends. However, this trend reverses between 1998 and 2009 in 64% of regions, notably across the Tibetan Plateau and East Asia. The reversal is supported by a global gross primary productivity dataset generated via machine learning, trained on eddy covariance flux data. The interruption is primarily associated with a global-scale decadal drought. These findings demonstrate that persistent drought can disrupt the upward trajectory of grassland growth peaks, posing a spatially uneven but widespread threat to ecological functions of grasslands under climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuihai You & Shiping Chen & Zhiqin Tu & Chenyu Bian & Erqian Cui & Kun Huang & Fangxiu Wan & Jiaye Ping & Ning Wei & Jianyang Xia, 2025. "Decadal trends in global grassland growth peaks and their drivers since the 1980s," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-64565-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-64565-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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