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Atmospheric CO2 forcing on Mediterranean biomes during the past 500 kyrs

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Koutsodendris

    (Heidelberg University)

  • Vasilis Dakos

    (Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE
    Sorbonne Université)

  • William J. Fletcher

    (The University of Manchester)

  • Maria Knipping

    (University of Hohenheim)

  • Ulrich Kotthoff

    (Hamburg University
    Leibniz Institute for the Analysis of Biodiversity Change (LIB))

  • Alice M. Milner

    (Royal Holloway University of London)

  • Ulrich C. Müller

    (Parlamentsstraße 32
    Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung)

  • Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr

    (Heidelberg University
    University of Potsdam)

  • Oliver A. Kern

    (Heidelberg University)

  • Laurin Kolb

    (Heidelberg University)

  • Polina Vakhrameeva

    (Heidelberg University)

  • Sabine Wulf

    (University of Portsmouth)

  • Kimon Christanis

    (University of Patras)

  • Gerhard Schmiedl

    (Hamburg University)

  • Jörg Pross

    (Heidelberg University
    Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung)

Abstract

There is growing concern on the survival of Mediterranean forests under the projected near-future droughts as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Here we determine the resilience of Mediterranean forests across the entire range of climatic boundary conditions realized during the past 500 kyrs based on continuous pollen and geochemical records of (sub)centennial-scale resolution from drillcores from Tenaghi Philippon, Greece. Using convergent cross-mapping we provide empirical confirmation that global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) may affect Mediterranean vegetation through forcing on moisture availability. Our analysis documents two stable vegetation regimes across the wide range of CO2 and moisture levels realized during the past four glacial-interglacial cycles, with abrupt shifts from forest to steppe biomes occurring when a threshold in precipitation is crossed. Our approach highlights that a CO2-driven moisture decrease in the near future may bear an impending risk for abrupt vegetation regime shifts prompting forest loss in the Mediterranean region.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Koutsodendris & Vasilis Dakos & William J. Fletcher & Maria Knipping & Ulrich Kotthoff & Alice M. Milner & Ulrich C. Müller & Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr & Oliver A. Kern & Laurin Kolb & Polina Vakhr, 2023. "Atmospheric CO2 forcing on Mediterranean biomes during the past 500 kyrs," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-37388-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37388-x
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