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Declining demand and circular transition possibilities of sand, gravel and crushed stone in China

Author

Listed:
  • Zijian Ren

    (Tsinghua University
    Tsinghua University
    Sinopec Engineering Incorporation (SEI))

  • Meng Jiang

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU))

  • Paul Behrens

    (University of Oxford
    Leiden University)

  • Dingjiang Chen

    (Tsinghua University
    Tsinghua University)

  • Clemens Mostert

    (University of Kassel)

  • Wenji Zhou

    (Renmin University of China)

  • Chunlong Li

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Fei Li

    (Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture)

  • Lin Liu

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Heming Wang

    (Northeastern University)

  • Ming Xu

    (Tsinghua University
    Tsinghua University)

  • Edgar Hertwich

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU))

  • Stefan Bringezu

    (University of Kassel)

  • Bing Zhu

    (Tsinghua University
    Tsinghua University
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

Abstract

Aggregates (sand, gravel, crushed stone) make up half of all globally extracted materials and present substantial environmental challenges. China, which consumes half of the world’s aggregates, is undergoing profound shifts in both supply and demand. Our scenario-based model tracks aggregate flows and stocks across 30 end-uses in Chinese provinces from 1978 to 2050. We find that China’s aggregate demand peaked around 2015, accompanied by a gradual and continuous shift from natural to manufactured aggregates. Total demand after 2030 is projected to decline to ~50% of 2020 levels in circular economy scenarios. Per capita stocks tend to saturate by 2040, although saturation timing varies across provinces. Stock saturation may lead to increased availability of recycled aggregates, which could become a primary supply source. We highlight the critical need for stricter policies and regulations for the aggregate industry, offering insights for other economies facing similar challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Zijian Ren & Meng Jiang & Paul Behrens & Dingjiang Chen & Clemens Mostert & Wenji Zhou & Chunlong Li & Fei Li & Lin Liu & Heming Wang & Ming Xu & Edgar Hertwich & Stefan Bringezu & Bing Zhu, 2025. "Declining demand and circular transition possibilities of sand, gravel and crushed stone in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-64349-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-64349-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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