IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v16y2025i1d10.1038_s41467-025-58304-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Change in iceberg calving behavior preceded North Sea ice shelf disintegration during the last deglaciation

Author

Listed:
  • James D. Kirkham

    (High Cross
    University of Cambridge)

  • Kelly A. Hogan

    (High Cross)

  • Robert D. Larter

    (High Cross)

  • Neil S. Arnold

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Ed Self

    (Gardline Limited)

  • Ken Games

    (Gardline Limited)

  • Jeremy C. Ely

    (University of Sheffield)

  • Chris D. Clark

    (University of Sheffield)

  • James D. Scourse

    (University of Exeter)

  • Calvin Shackleton

    (Norwegian Polar Institute)

  • Jan Erik Arndt

    (Institute of Geomatics)

  • Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand

    (High Cross)

  • Mads Huuse

    (University of Manchester)

  • Margaret A. Stewart

    (Research Avenue South)

  • Dag Ottesen

    (Geological Survey of Norway)

  • Julian A. Dowdeswell

    (University of Cambridge)

Abstract

Understanding how regime shifts in iceberg calving behavior affect ice shelf stability remains a challenge for numerical models. This is an important question as we consider the fate of the ice shelves that currently buttress the Antarctic Ice Sheet and hold back the bulk of its potential upstream sea-level contribution. Using buried landforms, we demonstrate that ice shelves fringed the former British-Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) and document their disintegration ~18,000 years ago. The ice shelves produced massive (5–10 s km wide, 50–180 m thick) tabular icebergs until widespread ice shelf break-up shifted the calving regime to smaller bergs; a change that coincided with the collapse of marine-based ice across the central North Sea. We propose that the BIIS reached a climatic threshold around 18 ka which caused massive surface melting of its ice shelves, triggering hydrofracturing of crevasses that ultimately led to their disintegration and likely enhanced ice-retreat rates.

Suggested Citation

  • James D. Kirkham & Kelly A. Hogan & Robert D. Larter & Neil S. Arnold & Ed Self & Ken Games & Jeremy C. Ely & Chris D. Clark & James D. Scourse & Calvin Shackleton & Jan Erik Arndt & Claus-Dieter Hill, 2025. "Change in iceberg calving behavior preceded North Sea ice shelf disintegration during the last deglaciation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-58304-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58304-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-58304-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-025-58304-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James A. Smith & Alastair G. C. Graham & Alix L. Post & Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand & Philip J. Bart & Ross D. Powell, 2019. "The marine geological imprint of Antarctic ice shelves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. J. Melchior Wessem & Michiel R. Broeke & Bert Wouters & Stef Lhermitte, 2023. "Variable temperature thresholds of melt pond formation on Antarctic ice shelves," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(2), pages 161-166, February.
    3. Martin Jakobsson & Johan Nilsson & Leif Anderson & Jan Backman & Göran Björk & Thomas M. Cronin & Nina Kirchner & Andrey Koshurnikov & Larry Mayer & Riko Noormets & Matthew O’Regan & Christian Stranne, 2016. "Evidence for an ice shelf covering the central Arctic Ocean during the penultimate glaciation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, April.
    4. Robert A. Massom & Theodore A. Scambos & Luke G. Bennetts & Phillip Reid & Vernon A. Squire & Sharon E. Stammerjohn, 2018. "Antarctic ice shelf disintegration triggered by sea ice loss and ocean swell," Nature, Nature, vol. 558(7710), pages 383-389, June.
    5. Chad A. Greene & Alex S. Gardner & Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel & Alexander D. Fraser, 2022. "Antarctic calving loss rivals ice-shelf thinning," Nature, Nature, vol. 609(7929), pages 948-953, September.
    6. Robert M. DeConto & David Pollard & Richard B. Alley & Isabella Velicogna & Edward Gasson & Natalya Gomez & Shaina Sadai & Alan Condron & Daniel M. Gilford & Erica L. Ashe & Robert E. Kopp & Dawei Li , 2021. "The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica," Nature, Nature, vol. 593(7857), pages 83-89, May.
    7. R. Reese & G. H. Gudmundsson & A. Levermann & R. Winkelmann, 2018. "The far reach of ice-shelf thinning in Antarctica," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 53-57, January.
    8. Matthew G. Wise & Julian A. Dowdeswell & Martin Jakobsson & Robert D. Larter, 2017. "Evidence of marine ice-cliff instability in Pine Island Bay from iceberg-keel plough marks," Nature, Nature, vol. 550(7677), pages 506-510, October.
    9. Anna E. Hogg & G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, 2017. "Impacts of the Larsen-C Ice Shelf calving event," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(8), pages 540-542, August.
    10. Eugene Domack & Diana Duran & Amy Leventer & Scott Ishman & Sarah Doane & Scott McCallum & David Amblas & Jim Ring & Robert Gilbert & Michael Prentice, 2005. "Stability of the Larsen B ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula during the Holocene epoch," Nature, Nature, vol. 436(7051), pages 681-685, August.
    11. H. D. Pritchard & S. R. M. Ligtenberg & H. A. Fricker & D. G. Vaughan & M. R. van den Broeke & L. Padman, 2012. "Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves," Nature, Nature, vol. 484(7395), pages 502-505, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeroen Ingels & Richard B. Aronson & Craig R. Smith & Amy Baco & Holly M. Bik & James A. Blake & Angelika Brandt & Mattias Cape & David Demaster & Emily Dolan & Eugene Domack & Spencer Fire & Heidi Ge, 2021. "Antarctic ecosystem responses following ice‐shelf collapse and iceberg calving: Science review and future research," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
    2. Anna Ruth W. Halberstadt & Edward Gasson & David Pollard & James Marschalek & Robert M. DeConto, 2024. "Geologically constrained 2-million-year-long simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat and expansion through the Pliocene," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Henning Åkesson & Mathieu Morlighem & Johan Nilsson & Christian Stranne & Martin Jakobsson, 2022. "Petermann ice shelf may not recover after a future breakup," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Benjamin J. Wallis & Anna E. Hogg & Michael P. Meredith & Romilly Close & Dominic Hardy & Malcolm McMillan & Jan Wuite & Thomas Nagler & Carlos Moffat, 2023. "Ocean warming drives rapid dynamic activation of marine-terminating glacier on the west Antarctic Peninsula," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Salman, Muhammad & Long, Xingle & Wang, Guimei & Zha, Donglan, 2022. "Paris climate agreement and global environmental efficiency: New evidence from fuzzy regression discontinuity design," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    6. Guandong Li & Torbjörn E. Törnqvist & Sönke Dangendorf, 2024. "Real-world time-travel experiment shows ecosystem collapse due to anthropogenic climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Camille Hayatte Akhoudas & Jean-Baptiste Sallée & Gilles Reverdin & F. Alexander Haumann & Etienne Pauthenet & Christopher C. Chapman & Félix Margirier & Claire Lo Monaco & Nicolas Metzl & Julie Meill, 2023. "Isotopic evidence for an intensified hydrological cycle in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Luke P. Jackson & Katarina Juselius & Andrew B. Martinez & Felix Pretis, 2025. "Modelling the dependence between recent changes in polar ice sheets: Implications for global sea-level projections," Working Papers 2025-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    9. Heather M. Stoll & Isabel Cacho & Edward Gasson & Jakub Sliwinski & Oliver Kost & Ana Moreno & Miguel Iglesias & Judit Torner & Carlos Perez-Mejias & Negar Haghipour & Hai Cheng & R. Lawrence Edwards, 2022. "Rapid northern hemisphere ice sheet melting during the penultimate deglaciation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, December.
    10. Zhou, Hao & Yang, Hongxing & Peng, Jinqing, 2024. "Solar PV vacuum glazing (SVG) insulated building facades: Thermal and electrical performances," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 376(PB).
    11. Francesco Giancaterini & Alain Hecq & Claudio Morana, 2022. "Is Climate Change Time-Reversible?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-18, December.
    12. Zhuo Zhang & Changsheng Chen & Zhiyao Song & Dong Zhang & Di Hu & Fei Guo, 2020. "A FVCOM study of the potential coastal flooding in apponagansett bay and clarks cove, Dartmouth Town (MA)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2787-2809, September.
    13. James R. Jordan & B. W. J. Miles & G. H. Gudmundsson & S. S. R. Jamieson & A. Jenkins & C. R. Stokes, 2023. "Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Tom Holt & Neil Glasser & Duncan Quincey, 2013. "The structural glaciology of southwest Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves (ca. 2010)," Journal of Maps, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 523-531, December.
    15. P. A. Reid & R. A. Massom, 2022. "Change and variability in Antarctic coastal exposure, 1979–2020," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    16. Rongxing Li & Yuan Cheng & Tian Chang & David E. Gwyther & Martin Forbes & Lu An & Menglian Xia & Xiaohan Yuan & Gang Qiao & Xiaohua Tong & Wenkai Ye, 2023. "Satellite record reveals 1960s acceleration of Totten Ice Shelf in East Antarctica," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    17. Anna-Mireilla Hayden & Tyler Pelle & Christine F. Dow, 2025. "The past, present, and future evolution of Aurora Subglacial Basin’s subglacial drainage system," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    18. A. Slangen & M. Carson & C. Katsman & R. van de Wal & A. Köhl & L. Vermeersen & D. Stammer, 2014. "Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 317-332, May.
    19. Changsheng Chen & Zhaolin Lin & Robert C. Beardsley & Tom Shyka & Yu Zhang & Qichun Xu & Jianhua Qi & Huichan Lin & Danya Xu, 2021. "Impacts of sea level rise on future storm-induced coastal inundations over massachusetts coast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(1), pages 375-399, March.
    20. Libao Gao & Xiaojun Yuan & Wenju Cai & Guijun Guo & Weidong Yu & Jiuxin Shi & Fangli Qiao & Zexun Wei & Guy D. Williams, 2024. "Persistent warm-eddy transport to Antarctic ice shelves driven by enhanced summer westerlies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-58304-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.