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Impacts of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress based on IRRMIP results

Author

Listed:
  • Yi Yao

    (Vrije Universiteit Brussel)

  • Agnès Ducharne

    (Sorbonne Université)

  • Benjamin I. Cook

    (New York University)

  • Steven J. Hertog

    (Vrije Universiteit Brussel
    Department of Environment, Universiteit Gent)

  • Kjetil Schanke Aas

    (CICERO - Center for International Climate Research)

  • Pedro F. Arboleda-Obando

    (Sorbonne Université)

  • Jonathan Buzan

    (Physics Institute, University of Bern
    University of Bern)

  • Jeanne Colin

    (Université de Toulouse, Météo-France)

  • Maya Costantini

    (Université de Toulouse, Météo-France)

  • Bertrand Decharme

    (Université de Toulouse, Météo-France)

  • David M. Lawrence

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Peter Lawrence

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • L. Ruby Leung

    (Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Min-Hui Lo

    (National Taiwan University)

  • Narayanappa Devaraju

    (CSC- IT Center for Science)

  • William R. Wieder

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Ren-Jie Wu

    (National Taiwan University)

  • Tian Zhou

    (Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Jonas Jägermeyr

    (Climate School
    NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
    Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Sonali McDermid

    (New York University)

  • Yadu Pokhrel

    (Michigan State University)

  • Maxwell Elling

    (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

  • Naota Hanasaki

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Paul Muñoz

    (Vrije Universiteit Brussel)

  • Larissa S. Nazarenko

    (New York University)

  • Kedar Otta

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Yusuke Satoh

    (Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology)

  • Tokuta Yokohata

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Lei Jin

    (College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University)

  • Xuhui Wang

    (College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University)

  • Vimal Mishra

    (Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)
    Indian Institute of Technology (IIT))

  • Subimal Ghosh

    (Indian Institute of Technology Bombay)

  • Wim Thiery

    (Vrije Universiteit Brussel)

Abstract

Irrigation rapidly expanded during the 20th century, affecting climate via water, energy, and biogeochemical changes. Previous assessments of these effects predominantly relied on a single Earth System Model, and therefore suffered from structural model uncertainties. Here we quantify the impacts of historical irrigation expansion on climate by analysing simulation results from six Earth system models participating in the Irrigation Model Intercomparison Project (IRRMIP). Results show that irrigation expansion causes a rapid increase in irrigation water withdrawal, which leads to less frequent 2-meter air temperature heat extremes across heavily irrigated areas (≥4 times less likely). However, due to the irrigation-induced increase in air humidity, the cooling effect of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress is less pronounced or even reversed, depending on the heat stress metric. In summary, this study indicates that irrigation deployment is not an efficient adaptation measure to escalating human heat stress under climate change, calling for carefully dealing with the increased exposure of local people to moist-heat stress.

Suggested Citation

  • Yi Yao & Agnès Ducharne & Benjamin I. Cook & Steven J. Hertog & Kjetil Schanke Aas & Pedro F. Arboleda-Obando & Jonathan Buzan & Jeanne Colin & Maya Costantini & Bertrand Decharme & David M. Lawrence , 2025. "Impacts of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress based on IRRMIP results," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-56356-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-56356-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wim Thiery & Auke J. Visser & Erich M. Fischer & Mathias Hauser & Annette L. Hirsch & David M. Lawrence & Quentin Lejeune & Edouard L. Davin & Sonia I. Seneviratne, 2020. "Warming of hot extremes alleviated by expanding irrigation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-7, December.
    2. Tatsumi, Kenichi & Yamashiki, Yosuke, 2015. "Effect of irrigation water withdrawals on water and energy balance in the Mekong River Basin using an improved VIC land surface model with fewer calibration parameters," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 92-106.
    3. Alexandratos, Nikos & Bruinsma, Jelle, 2012. "World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision," ESA Working Papers 288998, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    4. Roshan Jha & Arpita Mondal & Anjana Devanand & M. K. Roxy & Subimal Ghosh, 2022. "Limited influence of irrigation on pre-monsoon heat stress in the Indo-Gangetic Plain," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Suchul Kang & Elfatih A. B. Eltahir, 2018. "North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
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