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Warming of hot extremes alleviated by expanding irrigation

Author

Listed:
  • Wim Thiery

    (ETH Zurich
    Vrije Universiteit Brussel)

  • Auke J. Visser

    (Wageningen University)

  • Erich M. Fischer

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Mathias Hauser

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Annette L. Hirsch

    (University of New South Wales)

  • David M. Lawrence

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Quentin Lejeune

    (Climate Analytics)

  • Edouard L. Davin

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Sonia I. Seneviratne

    (ETH Zurich)

Abstract

Irrigation affects climate conditions – and especially hot extremes – in various regions across the globe. Yet how these climatic effects compare to other anthropogenic forcings is largely unknown. Here we provide observational and model evidence that expanding irrigation has dampened historical anthropogenic warming during hot days, with particularly strong effects over South Asia. We show that irrigation expansion can explain the negative correlation between global observed changes in daytime summer temperatures and present-day irrigation extent. While global warming increases the likelihood of hot extremes almost globally, irrigation can regionally cancel or even reverse the effects of all other forcings combined. Around one billion people (0.79–1.29) currently benefit from this dampened increase in hot extremes because irrigation massively expanded throughout the 20$${}^{th}$$th century. Our results therefore highlight that irrigation substantially reduced human exposure to warming of hot extremes but question whether this benefit will continue towards the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Wim Thiery & Auke J. Visser & Erich M. Fischer & Mathias Hauser & Annette L. Hirsch & David M. Lawrence & Quentin Lejeune & Edouard L. Davin & Sonia I. Seneviratne, 2020. "Warming of hot extremes alleviated by expanding irrigation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-14075-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-14075-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Olivera-Guerra, Luis-Enrique & Laluet, Pierre & Altés, Víctor & Ollivier, Chloé & Pageot, Yann & Paolini, Giovanni & Chavanon, Eric & Rivalland, Vincent & Boulet, Gilles & Villar, Josep-Maria & Merlin, 2023. "Modeling actual water use under different irrigation regimes at district scale: Application to the FAO-56 dual crop coefficient method," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    2. Potopová, V. & Trnka, M. & Vizina, A. & Semerádová, D. & Balek, J. & Chawdhery, M.R.A. & Musiolková, M. & Pavlík, P. & Možný, M. & Štěpánek, P. & Clothier, B., 2022. "Projection of 21st century irrigation water requirements for sensitive agricultural crop commodities across the Czech Republic," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    3. Jinxiu Liu & Weihao Shen & Yaqian He, 2021. "Effects of Cropland Expansion on Temperature Extremes in Western India from 1982 to 2015," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-17, May.
    4. Roshan Jha & Arpita Mondal & Anjana Devanand & M. K. Roxy & Subimal Ghosh, 2022. "Limited influence of irrigation on pre-monsoon heat stress in the Indo-Gangetic Plain," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.

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