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Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in coastal Kenya: a longitudinal open cohort study

Author

Listed:
  • M. Otiende

    (KEMRI-Wellcome Research Trust Programme)

  • A. Nyaguara

    (KEMRI-Wellcome Research Trust Programme)

  • C. Bottomley

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • D. Walumbe

    (KEMRI-Wellcome Research Trust Programme)

  • G. Mochamah

    (KEMRI-Wellcome Research Trust Programme)

  • D. Amadi

    (KEMRI-Wellcome Research Trust Programme)

  • C. Nyundo

    (KEMRI-Wellcome Research Trust Programme)

  • E. W. Kagucia

    (KEMRI-Wellcome Research Trust Programme)

  • A. O. Etyang

    (KEMRI-Wellcome Research Trust Programme)

  • I. M. O. Adetifa

    (KEMRI-Wellcome Research Trust Programme
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • S. P. C. Brand

    (University of Warwick)

  • E. Maitha

    (Kilifi County)

  • E. Chondo

    (Kilifi County)

  • E. Nzomo

    (Kilifi County Hospital)

  • R. Aman

    (Government of Kenya; Afya House)

  • M. Mwangangi

    (Government of Kenya; Afya House)

  • P. Amoth

    (Government of Kenya; Afya House)

  • K. Kasera

    (Government of Kenya; Afya House)

  • W. Ng’ang’a

    (The Presidency, Government of Kenya)

  • E. Barasa

    (KEMRI-Wellcome Research Trust Programme)

  • B. Tsofa

    (KEMRI-Wellcome Research Trust Programme)

  • J. Mwangangi

    (KEMRI-Wellcome Research Trust Programme)

  • P. Bejon

    (KEMRI-Wellcome Research Trust Programme
    University of Oxford)

  • A. Agweyu

    (KEMRI-Wellcome Research Trust Programme)

  • T. N. Williams

    (KEMRI-Wellcome Research Trust Programme
    Imperial College)

  • J. A. G. Scott

    (KEMRI-Wellcome Research Trust Programme
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

Abstract

The mortality impact of COVID-19 in Africa remains controversial because most countries lack vital registration. We analysed excess mortality in Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Kenya, using 9 years of baseline data. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies suggest most adults here were infected before May 2022. During 5 waves of COVID-19 (April 2020-May 2022) an overall excess mortality of 4.8% (95% PI 1.2%, 9.4%) concealed a significant excess (11.6%, 95% PI 5.9%, 18.9%) among older adults ( ≥ 65 years) and a deficit among children aged 1–14 years (−7.7%, 95% PI −20.9%, 6.9%). The excess mortality rate for January 2020-December 2021, age-standardised to the Kenyan population, was 27.4/100,000 person-years (95% CI 23.2-31.6). In Coastal Kenya, excess mortality during the pandemic was substantially lower than in most high-income countries but the significant excess mortality in older adults emphasizes the value of achieving high vaccine coverage in this risk group.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Otiende & A. Nyaguara & C. Bottomley & D. Walumbe & G. Mochamah & D. Amadi & C. Nyundo & E. W. Kagucia & A. O. Etyang & I. M. O. Adetifa & S. P. C. Brand & E. Maitha & E. Chondo & E. Nzomo & R. Ama, 2023. "Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in coastal Kenya: a longitudinal open cohort study," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-42615-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42615-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William Msemburi & Ariel Karlinsky & Victoria Knutson & Serge Aleshin-Guendel & Somnath Chatterji & Jon Wakefield, 2023. "The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 613(7942), pages 130-137, January.
    2. Ginsburg, Carren & Bocquier, Philippe & Béguy, Donatien & Afolabi, Sulaimon & Augusto, Orvalho & Derra, Karim & Herbst, Kobus & Lankoande, Bruno & Odhiambo, Frank & Otiende, Mark & Soura, Abdramane & , 2016. "Healthy or unhealthy migrants? Identifying internal migration effects on mortality in Africa using health and demographic surveillance systems of the INDEPTH network," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 59-73.
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