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Early indicators of tidal ecosystem shifts in estuaries

Author

Listed:
  • Gregory S. Fivash

    (Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
    University of Groningen)

  • Stijn Temmerman

    (University of Antwerp)

  • Maarten G. Kleinhans

    (Utrecht University)

  • Maike Heuner

    (Federal Institute of Hydrology)

  • Tjisse Heide

    (University of Groningen
    Radboud University
    Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research)

  • Tjeerd J. Bouma

    (Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
    University of Groningen
    Utrecht University
    HZ University of Applied Sciences)

Abstract

Forecasting transitions between tidal ecosystem states, such as between bare tidal flats and vegetated marshes, is crucial because it may imply the irreversible loss of valuable ecosystem services. In this study, we combine geospatial analyses of three European estuaries with a simple numerical model to demonstrate that the development of micro-topographic patterning on tidal flats is an early indicator of marsh establishment. We first show that the development of micro-topographic patterns precedes vegetation establishment, and that patterns tend to form only on tidal flats with a slope of

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory S. Fivash & Stijn Temmerman & Maarten G. Kleinhans & Maike Heuner & Tjisse Heide & Tjeerd J. Bouma, 2023. "Early indicators of tidal ecosystem shifts in estuaries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-37444-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37444-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhenchang Zhu & Vincent Vuik & Paul J. Visser & Tim Soens & Bregje Wesenbeeck & Johan Koppel & Sebastiaan N. Jonkman & Stijn Temmerman & Tjeerd J. Bouma, 2020. "Historic storms and the hidden value of coastal wetlands for nature-based flood defence," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(10), pages 853-862, October.
    2. Matthew L. Kirwan & J. Patrick Megonigal, 2013. "Tidal wetland stability in the face of human impacts and sea-level rise," Nature, Nature, vol. 504(7478), pages 53-60, December.
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    4. Stijn Temmerman & Patrick Meire & Tjeerd J. Bouma & Peter M. J. Herman & Tom Ysebaert & Huib J. De Vriend, 2013. "Ecosystem-based coastal defence in the face of global change," Nature, Nature, vol. 504(7478), pages 79-83, December.
    5. Marten Scheffer & Steve Carpenter & Jonathan A. Foley & Carl Folke & Brian Walker, 2001. "Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems," Nature, Nature, vol. 413(6856), pages 591-596, October.
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    7. Jim van Belzen & Johan van de Koppel & Matthew L. Kirwan & Daphne van der Wal & Peter M. J. Herman & Vasilis Dakos & Sonia Kéfi & Marten Scheffer & Glenn R. Guntenspergen & Tjeerd J. Bouma, 2017. "Vegetation recovery in tidal marshes reveals critical slowing down under increased inundation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-7, August.
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