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Vegetation recovery in tidal marshes reveals critical slowing down under increased inundation

Author

Listed:
  • Jim van Belzen

    (Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ) and Utrecht University)

  • Johan van de Koppel

    (Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ) and Utrecht University
    Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences, University of Groningen)

  • Matthew L. Kirwan

    (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary)

  • Daphne van der Wal

    (Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ) and Utrecht University)

  • Peter M. J. Herman

    (Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ) and Utrecht University
    Marine and Coastal Systems, Deltares)

  • Vasilis Dakos

    (Centre for Adaptation to a Changing Environment (ACE), Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich
    Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution, Université de Montpellier)

  • Sonia Kéfi

    (Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution, Université de Montpellier)

  • Marten Scheffer

    (Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Wageningen University)

  • Glenn R. Guntenspergen

    (Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Duluth)

  • Tjeerd J. Bouma

    (Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ) and Utrecht University
    Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences, University of Groningen)

Abstract

A declining rate of recovery following disturbance has been proposed as an important early warning for impending tipping points in complex systems. Despite extensive theoretical and laboratory studies, this ‘critical slowing down’ remains largely untested in the complex settings of real-world ecosystems. Here, we provide both observational and experimental support of critical slowing down along natural stress gradients in tidal marsh ecosystems. Time series of aerial images of European marsh development reveal a consistent lengthening of recovery time as inundation stress increases. We corroborate this finding with transplantation experiments in European and North American tidal marshes. In particular, our results emphasize the power of direct observational or experimental measures of recovery over indirect statistical signatures, such as spatial variance or autocorrelation. Our results indicate that the phenomenon of critical slowing down can provide a powerful tool to probe the resilience of natural ecosystems.

Suggested Citation

  • Jim van Belzen & Johan van de Koppel & Matthew L. Kirwan & Daphne van der Wal & Peter M. J. Herman & Vasilis Dakos & Sonia Kéfi & Marten Scheffer & Glenn R. Guntenspergen & Tjeerd J. Bouma, 2017. "Vegetation recovery in tidal marshes reveals critical slowing down under increased inundation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-7, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms15811
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms15811
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    Cited by:

    1. Gregory S. Fivash & Stijn Temmerman & Maarten G. Kleinhans & Maike Heuner & Tjisse Heide & Tjeerd J. Bouma, 2023. "Early indicators of tidal ecosystem shifts in estuaries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Haoyu Wen & Massimo Pica Ciamarra & Siew Ann Cheong, 2018. "How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, March.
    3. Timothy M. Lenton & Jesse F. Abrams & Annett Bartsch & Sebastian Bathiany & Chris A. Boulton & Joshua E. Buxton & Alessandra Conversi & Andrew M. Cunliffe & Sophie Hebden & Thomas Lavergne & Benjamin , 2024. "Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.

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