IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v14y2023i1d10.1038_s41467-023-36499-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Variability conceals emerging trend in 100yr projections of UK local hourly rainfall extremes

Author

Listed:
  • Elizabeth J. Kendon

    (Met Office Hadley Centre
    Bristol University)

  • Erich M. Fischer

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Chris J. Short

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

Abstract

Extreme precipitation is projected to intensify with warming, but how this will manifest locally through time is uncertain. Here, we exploit an ensemble of convection-permitting transient simulations to examine the emerging signal in local hourly rainfall extremes over 100-years. We show rainfall events in the UK exceeding 20 mm/h that can cause flash floods are 4-times as frequent by 2070s under high emissions; in contrast, a coarser resolution regional model shows only a 2.6x increase. With every degree of regional warming, the intensity of extreme downpours increases by 5-15%. Regional records of local hourly rainfall occur 40% more often than in the absence of warming. However, these changes are not realised as a smooth trend. Instead, as a result of internal variability, extreme years with record-breaking events may be followed by multiple decades with no new local rainfall records. The tendency for extreme years to cluster poses key challenges for communities trying to adapt.

Suggested Citation

  • Elizabeth J. Kendon & Erich M. Fischer & Chris J. Short, 2023. "Variability conceals emerging trend in 100yr projections of UK local hourly rainfall extremes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-36499-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36499-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36499-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-023-36499-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Pfahl & P. A. O’Gorman & E. M. Fischer, 2017. "Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(6), pages 423-427, June.
    2. E. M. Fischer & S. Sippel & R. Knutti, 2021. "Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(8), pages 689-695, August.
    3. David M. H. Sexton & Glen R. Harris, 2015. "The importance of including variability in climate change projections used for adaptation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(10), pages 931-936, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Federica Alfani & Vasco Molini & Giacomo Pallante & Alessandro PalmaGran, 2024. "Job displacement and reallocation failure. Evidence from climate shocks in Morocco," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 51(1), pages 1-31.
    2. Hideo Shiogama & Michiya Hayashi & Nagio Hirota & Tomoo Ogura & Hyungjun Kim & Masahiro Watanabe, 2025. "Combined emergent constraints on future extreme precipitation changes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Othman, Mohd Edzham Fareez & Sidek, Lariyah Mohd & Basri, Hidayah & El-Shafie, Ahmed & Ahmed, Ali Najah, 2025. "Climate challenges for sustainable hydropower development and operational resilience: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    4. Noureddine Chaachouay & Lahcen Zidane, 2024. "Perceptions and strategies of adaptation of Moroccan farmers to climate change—case of Khemisset province," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 14(2), pages 313-327, June.
    5. Shangrui Wang & Guohua Wang & Yiming Xiao, 2024. "How environmental policies affect personal willingness to pay for environmental protection: an investigation of interpretative and resource effects," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 1591-1613, January.
    6. Vikki Thompson & Dann Mitchell & Gabriele C. Hegerl & Matthew Collins & Nicholas J. Leach & Julia M. Slingo, 2023. "The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    7. Donatella Baiardi, 2021. "What do you think about climate change?," Working Papers 477, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2021.
    8. Yi Yang & Hai Lin & Yi Xu & Hang Pan & Guangtao Dong & Jianping Tang, 2025. "Future projections of precipitation extremes over East Asia based on a deep learning downscaled CMIP6 high-resolution (0.1°) dataset," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(1), pages 1-20, January.
    9. Viktoria Feucht & Paul Wilhelm Dierkes & Matthias Winfried Kleespies, 2025. "Ranking our future: University students' prioritization of Sustainable Development Goals and their connection to nature," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 3266-3282, June.
    10. Yuanfang Chai & Yao Yue & Louise J. Slater & Jiabo Yin & Alistair G. L. Borthwick & Tiexi Chen & Guojie Wang, 2022. "Constrained CMIP6 projections indicate less warming and a slower increase in water availability across Asia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    11. David J. Frame & Suzanne M. Rosier & Ilan Noy & Luke J. Harrington & Trevor Carey-Smith & Sarah N. Sparrow & Dáithí A. Stone & Samuel M. Dean, 2020. "Climate change attribution and the economic costs of extreme weather events: a study on damages from extreme rainfall and drought," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 781-797, September.
    12. Xing Zhang & Tianjun Zhou & Wenxia Zhang & Liwen Ren & Jie Jiang & Shuai Hu & Meng Zuo & Lixia Zhang & Wenmin Man, 2023. "Increased impact of heat domes on 2021-like heat extremes in North America under global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    13. Jorge Castillo-Mateo & Jesús Asín & Ana C. Cebrián & Jesús Mateo-Lázaro & Jesús Abaurrea, 2023. "Bayesian Variable Selection in Generalized Extreme Value Regression: Modeling Annual Maximum Temperature," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-19, February.
    14. Blanca Arellano & Qianhui Zheng & Josep Roca, 2025. "Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Precipitation and Temperature Trends in Spain," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-35, January.
    15. Shangshi Liu & Susan E. Ward & Andrew Wilby & Peter Manning & Mengyi Gong & Jessica Davies & Rebecca Killick & John N. Quinton & Richard D. Bardgett, 2025. "Multiple targeted grassland restoration interventions enhance ecosystem service multifunctionality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    16. James E. Overland, 2021. "Rare events in the Arctic," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-13, October.
    17. Chao Li & Jieyu Liu & Fujun Du & Francis W. Zwiers & Guolin Feng, 2025. "Increasing certainty in projected local extreme precipitation change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    18. Meng Gao & Xiaoyu Fang & Ruijun Ge & You-ping Fan & Yueqi Wang, 2024. "Multiple serial correlations in global air temperature anomaly time series," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(7), pages 1-20, July.
    19. Marco Grasso, 2022. "Legitimacy and procedural justice: how might stratospheric aerosol injection function in the public interest?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
    20. Zigeng Niu & Lan Feng & Xinxin Chen & Xiuping Yi, 2021. "Evaluation and Future Projection of Extreme Climate Events in the Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Basin in China Using Ensembled CMIP5 Models Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-26, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-36499-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.