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Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Precipitation and Temperature Trends in Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Blanca Arellano

    (Department of Architectural Technology, Technical University of Catalonia, 08028 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Qianhui Zheng

    (Department of Architectural Technology, Technical University of Catalonia, 08028 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Josep Roca

    (Department of Architectural Technology, Technical University of Catalonia, 08028 Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract

The objective of this study was to analyze the climate change experienced in Spain between 1971 and 2022 and to estimate the future climate (2050). The main objectives were as follows: (1) to analyze the temporal evolution of temperature from 1971 to the present, to quantify the warming process experienced in the case study and to evaluate the increase in extreme heat events (heatwaves); (2) to study the evolution of the precipitation regime to determine whether there is a statistically representative trend towards a drier climate and an increase in extreme precipitation; (3) to investigate the interaction between annual precipitation and the continuous increase in temperature; and (4) to estimate the future climate scenario for mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands towards 2050, analyzing the trends in land aridity and predicting a possible change from a Mediterranean climate to a warm steppe climate, according to the Köppen classification. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that the increase in temperature resulting from the global warming process implies a tendency towards progressive drought. Given the extreme annual variability of the climate, in addition to the ordinary least squares methodology, the techniques mainly used in this study were the Mann–Kendall test and the Kendall–Theil–Sen (KTS) regression. The Mann–Kendall test confirmed the very high statistical significance of the relationship between precipitation (RR) and maximum temperature (TX). If the warming trend experienced in recent years (1971–2022) continues, it is foreseeable that, by 2050, there will be a reduction in precipitation in Spain of between 14% and 23% with respect to the precipitation of the reference period (understood as the average between 1971 and 2000). Spain’s climate is likely to change from Mediterranean to warm steppe in the Köppen classification system (from “C” to “B”).

Suggested Citation

  • Blanca Arellano & Qianhui Zheng & Josep Roca, 2025. "Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Precipitation and Temperature Trends in Spain," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-35, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:1:p:85-:d:1559877
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xuebin Zhang & Francis W. Zwiers & Gabriele C. Hegerl & F. Hugo Lambert & Nathan P. Gillett & Susan Solomon & Peter A. Stott & Toru Nozawa, 2007. "Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends," Nature, Nature, vol. 448(7152), pages 461-465, July.
    2. Noah Diffenbaugh & Filippo Giorgi, 2012. "Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(3), pages 813-822, October.
    3. S. Pfahl & P. A. O’Gorman & E. M. Fischer, 2017. "Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(6), pages 423-427, June.
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