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Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades

Author

Listed:
  • Raphaëlle Klitting

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Liana E. Kafetzopoulou

    (KU Leuven - University of Leuven
    Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine)

  • Wim Thiery

    (Vrije Universiteit Brussel)

  • Gytis Dudas

    (Vilnius University)

  • Sophie Gryseels

    (University of Antwerp
    Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences)

  • Anjali Kotamarthi

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Bram Vrancken

    (KU Leuven - University of Leuven)

  • Karthik Gangavarapu

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Mambu Momoh

    (Eastern Technical University of Sierra Leone
    Ministry of Health and Sanitation)

  • John Demby Sandi

    (Ministry of Health and Sanitation)

  • Augustine Goba

    (Ministry of Health and Sanitation)

  • Foday Alhasan

    (Ministry of Health and Sanitation)

  • Donald S. Grant

    (Ministry of Health and Sanitation
    University of Sierra Leone)

  • Sylvanus Okogbenin

    (Irrua Specialist Teaching Hospital
    Ambrose Alli University)

  • Ephraim Ogbaini-Emovo

    (Irrua Specialist Teaching Hospital)

  • Robert F. Garry

    (Tulane University, School of Medicine
    Zalgen Labs, LCC
    Global Virus Network (GVN))

  • Allison R. Smither

    (Tulane University, School of Medicine)

  • Mark Zeller

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Matthias G. Pauthner

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Michelle McGraw

    (The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Laura D. Hughes

    (Structural and Computational Biology, The Scripps Research Institute)

  • Sophie Duraffour

    (Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine
    Partner site Hamburg–Lübeck–Borstel–Riems)

  • Stephan Günther

    (Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine
    Partner site Hamburg–Lübeck–Borstel–Riems)

  • Marc A. Suchard

    (University of California
    University of California
    University of California)

  • Philippe Lemey

    (KU Leuven - University of Leuven)

  • Kristian G. Andersen

    (The Scripps Research Institute
    Scripps Research Translational Institute)

  • Simon Dellicour

    (KU Leuven - University of Leuven
    Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles)

Abstract

Lassa fever is a severe viral hemorrhagic fever caused by a zoonotic virus that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate and land use changes could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring the environmental data associated with virus occurrence using ecological niche modelling, we show how temperature, precipitation and the presence of pastures determine ecological suitability for virus circulation. Based on projections of climate, land use, and population changes, we find that regions in Central and East Africa will likely become suitable for Lassa virus over the next decades and estimate that the total population living in ecological conditions that are suitable for Lassa virus circulation may drastically increase by 2070. By analysing geotagged viral genomes using spatially-explicit phylogeography and simulating virus dispersal, we find that in the event of Lassa virus being introduced into a new suitable region, its spread might remain spatially limited over the first decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphaëlle Klitting & Liana E. Kafetzopoulou & Wim Thiery & Gytis Dudas & Sophie Gryseels & Anjali Kotamarthi & Bram Vrancken & Karthik Gangavarapu & Mambu Momoh & John Demby Sandi & Augustine Goba & F, 2022. "Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-33112-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33112-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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