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Hardship at birth alters the impact of climate change on a long-lived predator

Author

Listed:
  • Fabrizio Sergio

    (Estación Biológica de Doñana - CSIC)

  • Giacomo Tavecchia

    (Institute for Mediterranean Studies (IMEDEA), CSIC-UIB)

  • Julio Blas

    (Estación Biológica de Doñana - CSIC)

  • Alessandro Tanferna

    (Estación Biológica de Doñana - CSIC)

  • Fernando Hiraldo

    (Estación Biológica de Doñana - CSIC)

  • Erkki Korpimaki

    (University of Turku)

  • Steven R. Beissinger

    (University of California
    University of California)

Abstract

Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme events, such as droughts or hurricanes, with substantial impacts on human and wildlife communities. Extreme events can affect individuals through two pathways: by altering the fitness of adults encountering a current extreme, and by affecting the development of individuals born during a natal extreme, a largely overlooked process. Here, we show that the impact of natal drought on an avian predator overrode the effect of current drought for decades, so that individuals born during drought were disadvantaged throughout life. Incorporation of natal effects caused a 40% decline in forecasted population size and a 21% shortening of time to extinction. These results imply that climate change may erode populations more quickly and severely than currently appreciated, suggesting the urgency to incorporate “penalties” for natal legacies in the analytical toolkit of impact forecasts. Similar double impacts may apply to other drivers of global change.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrizio Sergio & Giacomo Tavecchia & Julio Blas & Alessandro Tanferna & Fernando Hiraldo & Erkki Korpimaki & Steven R. Beissinger, 2022. "Hardship at birth alters the impact of climate change on a long-lived predator," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-33011-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33011-7
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    1. Jacob Schewe & Simon N. Gosling & Christopher Reyer & Fang Zhao & Philippe Ciais & Joshua Elliott & Louis Francois & Veronika Huber & Heike K. Lotze & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Michelle T. H. van Vliet &, 2019. "State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Patrick Bateson & David Barker & Timothy Clutton-Brock & Debal Deb & Bruno D'Udine & Robert A. Foley & Peter Gluckman & Keith Godfrey & Tom Kirkwood & Marta Mirazón Lahr & John McNamara & Neil B. Metc, 2004. "Developmental plasticity and human health," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(6998), pages 419-421, July.
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