IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-28764-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projected climate-driven changes in pollen emission season length and magnitude over the continental United States

Author

Listed:
  • Yingxiao Zhang

    (University of Michigan)

  • Allison L. Steiner

    (University of Michigan)

Abstract

Atmospheric conditions affect the release of anemophilous pollen, and the timing and magnitude will be altered by climate change. As simulated with a pollen emission model and future climate data, warmer end-of-century temperatures (4–6 K) shift the start of spring emissions 10–40 days earlier and summer/fall weeds and grasses 5–15 days later and lengthen the season duration. Phenological shifts depend on the temperature response of individual taxa, with convergence in some regions and divergence in others. Temperature and precipitation alter daily pollen emission maxima by −35 to 40% and increase the annual total pollen emission by 16–40% due to changes in phenology and temperature-driven pollen production. Increasing atmospheric CO2 may increase pollen production, and doubling production in conjunction with climate increases end-of-century emissions up to 200%. Land cover change modifies the distribution of pollen emitters, yet the effects are relatively small (

Suggested Citation

  • Yingxiao Zhang & Allison L. Steiner, 2022. "Projected climate-driven changes in pollen emission season length and magnitude over the continental United States," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-28764-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28764-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-28764-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-28764-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pecchi, Matteo & Marchi, Maurizio & Burton, Vanessa & Giannetti, Francesca & Moriondo, Marco & Bernetti, Iacopo & Bindi, Marco & Chirici, Gherardo, 2019. "Species distribution modelling to support forest management. A literature review," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 411(C).
    2. Lynda Hamaoui-Laguel & Robert Vautard & Li Liu & Fabien Solmon & Nicolas Viovy & Dmitry Khvorostyanov & Franz Essl & Isabelle Chuine & Augustin Colette & Mikhail A. Semenov & Alice Schaffhauser & Jona, 2015. "Effects of climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen loads in Europe," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 766-771, August.
    3. K. J. Feeley & C. Bravo-Avila & B. Fadrique & T. M. Perez & D. Zuleta, 2020. "Publisher Correction: Climate-driven changes in the composition of New World plant communities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(11), pages 1062-1062, November.
    4. K. J. Feeley & C. Bravo-Avila & B. Fadrique & T. M. Perez & D. Zuleta, 2020. "Climate-driven changes in the composition of New World plant communities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(10), pages 965-970, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephan Kambach & Francesco Maria Sabatini & Fabio Attorre & Idoia Biurrun & Gerhard Boenisch & Gianmaria Bonari & Andraž Čarni & Maria Laura Carranza & Alessandro Chiarucci & Milan Chytrý & Jürgen De, 2023. "Climate-trait relationships exhibit strong habitat specificity in plant communities across Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Imran Khaliq & Christian Rixen & Florian Zellweger & Catherine H. Graham & Martin M. Gossner & Ian R. McFadden & Laura Antão & Jakob Brodersen & Shyamolina Ghosh & Francesco Pomati & Ole Seehausen & T, 2024. "Warming underpins community turnover in temperate freshwater and terrestrial communities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. De Cubber, Lola & Trenkel, Verena M. & Diez, Guzman & Gil-Herrera, Juan & Novoa Pabon, Ana Maria & Eme, David & Lorance, Pascal, 2023. "Robust identification of potential habitats of a rare demersal species (blackspot seabream) in the Northeast Atlantic," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 477(C).
    4. Gebreab K. Zewdie & David J. Lary & Estelle Levetin & Gemechu F. Garuma, 2019. "Applying Deep Neural Networks and Ensemble Machine Learning Methods to Forecast Airborne Ambrosia Pollen," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-14, June.
    5. Srivastava, Vivek & Carroll, Allan L., 2023. "Dynamic distribution modelling using a native invasive species, the mountain pine beetle," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 482(C).
    6. Yang Yi & Mingchang Shi & Jialin Liu & Chen Zhang & Xiaoding Yi & Sha Li & Chunyang Chen & Liangzhao Lin, 2022. "Spatial Distribution of Precise Suitability of Plantation: A Case Study of Main Coniferous Forests in Hubei Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-19, May.
    7. Carly Ray & Xue Ming, 2020. "Climate Change and Human Health: A Review of Allergies, Autoimmunity and the Microbiome," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-7, July.
    8. Wentao Yang & Huaxi He & Dongsheng Wei & Hao Chen, 2022. "Generating pseudo-absence samples of invasive species based on outlier detection in the geographical characteristic space," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 261-279, April.
    9. Nur Sabrina Idrose & Caroline J. Lodge & Bircan Erbas & Jo A. Douglass & Dinh S. Bui & Shyamali C. Dharmage, 2022. "A Review of the Respiratory Health Burden Attributable to Short-Term Exposure to Pollen," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-16, June.
    10. Maureen Agnew & Ivana Banic & Iain R. Lake & Clare Goodess & Carlota M. Grossi & Natalia R. Jones & Davor Plavec & Michelle Epstein & Mirjana Turkalj, 2018. "Modifiable Risk Factors for Common Ragweed ( Ambrosia artemisiifolia ) Allergy and Disease in Children: A Case-Control Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-12, June.
    11. Bazzato, Erika & Rosati, Leonardo & Canu, Simona & Fiori, Michele & Farris, Emmanuele & Marignani, Michela, 2021. "High spatial resolution bioclimatic variables to support ecological modelling in a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 441(C).
    12. Maria Elisa Di Cicco & Giuliana Ferrante & Doriana Amato & Antonino Capizzi & Carlo De Pieri & Valentina Agnese Ferraro & Maria Furno & Valentina Tranchino & Stefania La Grutta, 2020. "Climate Change and Childhood Respiratory Health: A Call to Action for Paediatricians," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-12, July.
    13. Fangyu Ding & Tian Ma & Mengmeng Hao & Qian Wang & Shuai Chen & Di Wang & Luqi Huang & Xiaobo Zhang & Dong Jiang, 2020. "Mapping Worldwide Environmental Suitability for Artemisia annua L," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-10, February.
    14. Hillary Mugiyo & Vimbayi G. P. Chimonyo & Mbulisi Sibanda & Richard Kunz & Cecilia R. Masemola & Albert T. Modi & Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, 2021. "Evaluation of Land Suitability Methods with Reference to Neglected and Underutilised Crop Species: A Scoping Review," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-24, January.
    15. Dany A. Cotrina Sánchez & Elgar Barboza Castillo & Nilton B. Rojas Briceño & Manuel Oliva & Cristóbal Torres Guzman & Carlos A. Amasifuen Guerra & Subhajit Bandopadhyay, 2020. "Distribution Models of Timber Species for Forest Conservation and Restoration in the Andean-Amazonian Landscape, North of Peru," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-20, September.
    16. Arayaselassie Abebe Semu & Tamrat Bekele & Ermias Lulekal & Paloma Cariñanos & Sileshi Nemomissa, 2021. "Projected Impact of Climate Change on Habitat Suitability of a Vulnerable Endemic Vachellia negrii (pic.serm.) kyal. & Boatwr (Fabaceae) in Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-16, October.
    17. Gerhard Karrer & Gabriele Bassler-Binder & Wolfgang Willner, 2022. "Assessment of Drought-Tolerant Provenances of Austria’s Indigenous Tree Species," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-30, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-28764-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.