IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v3y2013i2d10.1038_nclimate1674.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Limiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs

Author

Listed:
  • K. Frieler

    (Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • M. Meinshausen

    (Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne)

  • A. Golly

    (Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • M. Mengel

    (Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • K. Lebek

    (Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • S. D. Donner

    (University of British Columbia)

  • O. Hoegh-Guldberg

    (Global Change Institute and ARC Centre for Excellence in Coral Reefs, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane)

Abstract

Mass coral bleaching events have become a widespread phenomenon causing serious concerns with regard to the survival of corals. Triggered by high ocean temperatures, bleaching events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. Here, we provide a comprehensive global study of coral bleaching in terms of global mean temperature change, based on an extended set of emissions scenarios and models. We show that preserving >10% of coral reefs worldwide would require limiting warming to below 1.5 °C (atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) range: 1.3–1.8 °C) relative to pre-industrial levels. Even under optimistic assumptions regarding corals’ thermal adaptation, one-third (9–60%, 68% uncertainty range) of the world’s coral reefs are projected to be subject to long-term degradation under the most optimistic new IPCC emissions scenario, RCP3-PD. Under RCP4.5 this fraction increases to two-thirds (30–88%, 68% uncertainty range). Possible effects of ocean acidification reducing thermal tolerance are assessed within a sensitivity experiment.

Suggested Citation

  • K. Frieler & M. Meinshausen & A. Golly & M. Mengel & K. Lebek & S. D. Donner & O. Hoegh-Guldberg, 2013. "Limiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(2), pages 165-170, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:3:y:2013:i:2:d:10.1038_nclimate1674
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1674
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1674
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/nclimate1674?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jacob G. D. Rogers & Éva E. Plagányi, 2022. "Culling corallivores improves short-term coral recovery under bleaching scenarios," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Carlo Fezzi & Mauro Derek J. Ford & Kirsten L.L. Oleson, 2022. "The economic value of coral reefs: climate change impacts and spatial targeting of restoration measures," DEM Working Papers 2022/5, Department of Economics and Management.
    3. Adeel ur Rehman & Bhajan Lal, 2022. "Gas Hydrate-Based CO 2 Capture: A Journey from Batch to Continuous," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-27, November.
    4. Solomon Hsiang & Robert E. Kopp, 2018. "An Economist's Guide to Climate Change Science," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 3-32, Fall.
    5. Zhao, Congyu & Wang, Jianda & Dong, Kangyin & Wang, Kun, 2023. "How does renewable energy encourage carbon unlocking? A global case for decarbonization," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Shannon G. Klein & Cassandra Roch & Carlos M. Duarte, 2024. "Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    7. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    8. Simon D Donner & Gregory J M Rickbeil & Scott F Heron, 2017. "A new, high-resolution global mass coral bleaching database," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, April.
    9. Eder, Christina & Stadelmann-Steffen, Isabelle, 2023. "Bringing the political system (back) into social tipping relevant to sustainability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    10. Sol, Joeri, 2019. "Economics in the anthropocene: species extinction or steady state economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Friedrich Glauner, 2019. "The Myth of Responsibility: on Changing the Purpose Paradigm," Humanistic Management Journal, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-32, July.
    12. Thomas W. Davies & Oren Levy & Svenja Tidau & Laura Fernandes Barros Marangoni & Joerg Wiedenmann & Cecilia D’Angelo & Tim Smyth, 2023. "Global disruption of coral broadcast spawning associated with artificial light at night," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-7, December.
    13. Joeri Sol, 2018. "Economics in the Anthropocene: Species Extinction or Steady State Economics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-039/VIII, Tinbergen Institute, revised 07 Oct 2018.
    14. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "Regional differences in the CO2 emissions of China's iron and steel industry: Regional heterogeneity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 422-434.
    15. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2015. "How industrialization and urbanization process impacts on CO2 emissions in China: Evidence from nonparametric additive regression models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 188-202.
    16. Winkelmann, Ricarda & Donges, Jonathan F. & Smith, E. Keith & Milkoreit, Manjana & Eder, Christina & Heitzig, Jobst & Katsanidou, Alexia & Wiedermann, Marc & Wunderling, Nico & Lenton, Timothy M., 2022. "Social tipping processes towards climate action: A conceptual framework," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    17. Fezzi, Carlo & Ford, Derek J. & Oleson, Kirsten L.L., 2023. "The economic value of coral reefs: Climate change impacts and spatial targeting of restoration measures," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:3:y:2013:i:2:d:10.1038_nclimate1674. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.