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A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts

Author

Listed:
  • Ida Sognnaes

    (CICERO Center for International Climate Research)

  • Ajay Gambhir

    (Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London)

  • Dirk-Jan van de Ven

    (Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3))

  • Alexandros Nikas

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Annela Anger-Kraavi

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Ha Bui

    (Cambridge Econometrics)

  • Lorenza Campagnolo

    (RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE)
    Ca’Foscari University of Venice
    Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC))

  • Elisa Delpiazzo

    (RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE)
    Ca’Foscari University of Venice
    Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC))

  • Haris Doukas

    (National Technical University of Athens)

  • Sara Giarola

    (Imperial College London)

  • Neil Grant

    (Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London)

  • Adam Hawkes

    (Imperial College London)

  • Alexandre C. Köberle

    (Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London)

  • Andrey Kolpakov

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • Shivika Mittal

    (Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London)

  • Jorge Moreno

    (Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3))

  • Sigit Perdana

    (École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL))

  • Joeri Rogelj

    (Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Marc Vielle

    (École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL))

  • Glen P. Peters

    (CICERO Center for International Climate Research)

Abstract

Most of the integrated assessment modelling literature focuses on cost-effective pathways towards given temperature goals. Conversely, using seven diverse integrated assessment models, we project global energy CO2 emissions trajectories on the basis of near-term mitigation efforts and two assumptions on how these efforts continue post-2030. Despite finding a wide range of emissions by 2050, nearly all the scenarios have median warming of less than 3 °C in 2100. However, the most optimistic scenario is still insufficient to limit global warming to 2 °C. We furthermore highlight key modelling choices inherent to projecting where emissions are headed. First, emissions are more sensitive to the choice of integrated assessment model than to the assumed mitigation effort, highlighting the importance of heterogeneous model intercomparisons. Differences across models reflect diversity in baseline assumptions and impacts of near-term mitigation efforts. Second, the common practice of using economy-wide carbon prices to represent policy exaggerates carbon capture and storage use compared with explicitly modelling policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ida Sognnaes & Ajay Gambhir & Dirk-Jan van de Ven & Alexandros Nikas & Annela Anger-Kraavi & Ha Bui & Lorenza Campagnolo & Elisa Delpiazzo & Haris Doukas & Sara Giarola & Neil Grant & Adam Hawkes & Al, 2021. "A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(12), pages 1055-1062, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01206-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01206-3
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Perdana, Sigit & Vielle, Marc, 2022. "Making the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism acceptable and climate friendly for least developed countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    2. Daniel Engler & Gunnar Gutsche & Amantia Simixhiu & Andreas Ziegler, 2022. "Social norms and individual climate protection activities: A framed field experiment for Germany," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202230, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. Koasidis, Konstantinos & Nikas, Alexandros & Van de Ven, Dirk-Jan & Xexakis, Georgios & Forouli, Aikaterini & Mittal, Shivika & Gambhir, Ajay & Koutsellis, Themistoklis & Doukas, Haris, 2022. "Towards a green recovery in the EU: Aligning further emissions reductions with short- and long-term energy-sector employment gains," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    4. Cassetti, Gabriele & Boitier, Baptiste & Elia, Alessia & Le Mouël, Pierre & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Zagamé, Paul & Nikas, Alexandros & Koasidis, Konstantinos & Doukas, Haris & Chiodi, Alessandro, 2023. "The interplay among COVID-19 economic recovery, behavioural changes, and the European Green Deal: An energy-economic modelling perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    5. Sigit Perdana & Marc Vielle, 2023. "Carbon border adjustment mechanism in the transition to net-zero emissions: collective implementation and distributional impacts," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 25(3), pages 299-329, July.
    6. Mark M. Dekker & Vassilis Daioglou & Robert Pietzcker & Renato Rodrigues & Harmen-Sytze Boer & Francesco Dalla Longa & Laurent Drouet & Johannes Emmerling & Amir Fattahi & Theofano Fotiou & Panagiotis, 2023. "Identifying energy model fingerprints in mitigation scenarios," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 8(12), pages 1395-1404, December.
    7. Jarke-Neuert, Johannes & Perino, Grischa & Schwickert, Henrike, 2021. "Free-Riding for Future: Field Experimental Evidence of Strategic Substitutability in Climate Protest," SocArXiv sh6dm, Center for Open Science.
    8. Nikas, Alexandros & Frilingou, Natasha & Heussaff, Conall & Fragkos, Panagiotis & Mittal, Shivika & Sampedro, Jon & Giarola, Sara & Sasse, Jan-Philipp & Rinaldi, Lorenzo & Doukas, Haris & Gambhir, Aja, 2024. "Three different directions in which the European Union could replace Russian natural gas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    9. Sirgit Perdana & Marc Vielle & Maxime Schenkery, 2022. "European Economic Impacts of Cutting Energy imports from Russia : a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers hal-03898833, HAL.
    10. Hao Dong & Tao Li, 2023. "Climate Economics and Finance: A Literature Review," Climate Economics and Finance, Anser Press, vol. 1(1), pages 29-45, November.
    11. Leonardo Nascimento & Takeshi Kuramochi & Niklas Höhne, 2022. "The G20 emission projections to 2030 improved since the Paris Agreement, but only slightly," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(6), pages 1-24, August.
    12. Toshi H. Arimura & Elke D. Groh & Miwa Nakai & Andreas Ziegler, 2022. "The causal effect of private and organizational climate-related identity on climate protection activities: Evidence from a framed field experiment in Japan," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202229, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    13. Jieran Feng & Junpei Nan & Chao Wang & Ke Sun & Xu Deng & Hao Zhou, 2022. "Source-Load Coordinated Low-Carbon Economic Dispatch of Electric-Gas Integrated Energy System Based on Carbon Emission Flow Theory," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-24, May.
    14. Engler, Daniel & Ziegler, Andreas & Gutsche, Gunnar & Simixhiu, Amantia, 2023. "Social Norms and Individual Climate Protection Activities: A Framed Field Experiment for Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277662, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. A. A. Shirov, 2022. "Macrostructural Analysis and Forecasting in Modern Conditions of Economic Development," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 495-505, October.
    16. Zhang, Qingyong & Mao, Xianqiang & Lu, Jianhong & Guo, Zhi & Duman, Zaenhaer & Chen, Yongpeng & Song, Peng & Tu, Kevin, 2024. "EU-Russia energy decoupling in combination with the updated NDCs impacts on global fossil energy trade and carbon emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).

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