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An Exploratory Analysis of Inflation Episodes in Pakistan

Author

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  • Riaz Riazuddin

    (Economic Advisor, State Bank of Pakistan.)

Abstract

This paper explores the past 50 years of data on inflation, growth rates of money and real GDP. It is found that inflation is primarily a monetary phenomena; however, the quantity theory of money does not hold in Pakistan below money supply growth rates of 9 percent. A simple monetary rule is also derived by inspecting the maximumprobabilities of keeping inflation low (at most 6 percent); this rule is simply to keep money growth rates below 12 percent.This paper also finds that food inflation too is a monetary phenomenaand there is no trade-off between inflation and growth, which are independent in the sense of probability measures. The findings are confirmed by the application of Fisher’s Exact Test. The policy implication is that monetary policy should be pursued independently of growth policies of government.

Suggested Citation

  • Riaz Riazuddin, 2008. "An Exploratory Analysis of Inflation Episodes in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 13(Special E), pages 63-93, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:13:y:2008:i:sp:p:63-93
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yasir Ali Mubarik, 2005. "Inflation and Growth: An Estimate of the Threshold Level of Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 1, pages 35-44.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shahzad Ahmad & Farooq Pasha, 2015. "A Pragmatic Model for Monetary Policy Analysis I: The Case of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 11, pages 1-42.
    2. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik, 2015. "Evaluating the Performance of Inflation Forecasting Models of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 11, pages 43-78.
    3. Hanif, Muhammad Nadim, 2012. "A Note on Food Inflation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 45009, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Mar 2013.
    4. Hanif, Muhammad Nadim, 2014. "Monetary Policy Experience of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 60855, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pakistan; Inflation; Monetary Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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