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The demand impacts of train punctuality in great britain: systematic review, meta-analysis and some new econometric insights

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Listed:
  • Mark Wardman

    (University of Leeds)

  • Richard Batley

    (University of Leeds)

Abstract

This paper updates and extends the systematic review and meta-analysis of Wardman and Batley (Transportation 41:1041–1069, 2014), which hitherto was the most comprehensive study of the impacts of punctuality on passenger rail demand in the literature. Whereas the 2014 paper covered 51 elasticities from 6 studies in Great Britain published between 2003 and 2011, this updated paper adds 11 subsequent British studies yielding a further 201 observations. The meta-model recovers a range of significant effects, relating to whether the elasticity was short versus long run, flow type and distance, season versus nonseason tickets, the relevant measure of lateness, and whether the purpose of the study was specifically the estimation of late time elasticities. Allowance was also made for study quality-related issues. The data indicated that, despite dynamic models being commonplace, there is some uncertainty as to how long the long run is. Alongside the meta-model, the paper also reports new econometric evidence that addresses some gaps in existing evidence and knowledge, especially in relation to functional form and non-linearity of effects. Findings from both strands of analysis would seem to suggest that rail industry guidance has tended to overstate the demand impacts of punctuality.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Wardman & Richard Batley, 2022. "The demand impacts of train punctuality in great britain: systematic review, meta-analysis and some new econometric insights," Transportation, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 555-589, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:49:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11116-021-10186-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-021-10186-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Wardman & Richard Batley, 2014. "Travel time reliability: a review of late time valuations, elasticities and demand impacts in the passenger rail market in Great Britain," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(5), pages 1041-1069, September.
    2. Wardman, Mark & Hatfield, Andrew & Shires, Jeremy & Ishtaiwi, Mahmoud, 2019. "The sensitivity of rail demand to variations in motoring costs: Findings from a comparison of methods," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 181-199.
    3. Mark Wardman & Glenn Lyons, 2016. "The digital revolution and worthwhile use of travel time: implications for appraisal and forecasting," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 507-530, May.
    4. Mark Wardman, 2012. "Review and meta-analysis of U.K. time elasticities of travel demand," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 465-490, May.
    5. Mark Wardman & Jeremy Toner, 2020. "Is generalised cost justified in travel demand analysis?," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 75-108, February.
    6. Kenneth Button, 2019. "The value and challenges of using meta-analysis in transportation economics," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 293-308, May.
    7. Wardman, Mark, 2006. "Demand for rail travel and the effects of external factors," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 129-148, May.
    8. Batley, Richard & Dargay, Joyce & Wardman, Mark, 2011. "The impact of lateness and reliability on passenger rail demand," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-72, January.
    9. Mark Wardman & Phani Chintakayala & Chris Heywood, 2020. "The valuation and demand impacts of the worthwhile use of travel time with specific reference to the digital revolution and endogeneity," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 1515-1540, June.
    10. Wheat, Phill & Wardman, Mark, 2017. "Effects of timetable related service quality on rail demand," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 96-108.
    11. Wardman, Mark & Chintakayala, V. Phani K. & de Jong, Gerard, 2016. "Values of travel time in Europe: Review and meta-analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 93-111.
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