IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/transp/v48y2021i3d10.1007_s11116-020-10091-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An adapted geographically weighted LASSO (Ada-GWL) model for predicting subway ridership

Author

Listed:
  • Yuxin He

    (City University of Hong Kong)

  • Yang Zhao

    (City University of Hong Kong
    City University of Hong Kong)

  • Kwok Leung Tsui

    (City University of Hong Kong
    City University of Hong Kong)

Abstract

Ridership prediction at station level plays a critical role in subway transportation planning. Among various existing ridership prediction methods, direct demand model has been recognized as an effective approach. However, direct demand models including geographically weighted regression (GWR) have rarely been studied for local model selection in ridership prediction. In practice, acquiring insights into subway ridership under multiple influencing factors from a local perspective is important for passenger flow management and transportation planning operations adapting to local conditions. In this study, we propose an adapted geographically weighted LASSO (Ada-GWL) framework for modelling subway ridership, which involves regression-coefficient shrinkage and local model selection. It takes subway network layout into account and adopts network-based distance metric instead of Euclidean-based distance metric, making it so-called adapted to the context of subway networks. The real-world case of Shenzhen Metro is used to elaborate our proposed model. The results show that the proposed Ada-GWL model performs the best compared with the global model (ordinary least square, GWR, GWR calibrated with network-based distance metric and geographically weighted LASSO (GWL) in terms of estimation error and goodness-of-fit. Through understanding the variation of each coefficient across space (elasticities) and variables selection of each station, it provides more realistic conclusions based on local analysis. Besides, through clustering analysis of the stations according to the regression coefficients, clusters’ functional characteristics are found to be in compliance with the policy of functional land use in Shenzhen, indicating the high interpretability of Ada-GWL model from the spatial angle. In other words, the regression coefficients of different stations can provide us the local prospective to understand the influence of factors on stations’ ridership.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuxin He & Yang Zhao & Kwok Leung Tsui, 2021. "An adapted geographically weighted LASSO (Ada-GWL) model for predicting subway ridership," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1185-1216, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:48:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11116-020-10091-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-020-10091-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11116-020-10091-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11116-020-10091-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Junfang Li & Minfeng Yao & Qian Fu, 2016. "Forecasting Method for Urban Rail Transit Ridership at Station Level Using Back Propagation Neural Network," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2016, pages 1-9, October.
    2. David Wheeler & Michael Tiefelsdorf, 2005. "Multicollinearity and correlation among local regression coefficients in geographically weighted regression," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 161-187, June.
    3. Zhang, Dapeng & Wang, Xiaokun (Cara), 2014. "Transit ridership estimation with network Kriging: a case study of Second Avenue Subway, NYC," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 107-115.
    4. Gutiérrez, Javier & Cardozo, Osvaldo Daniel & García-Palomares, Juan Carlos, 2011. "Transit ridership forecasting at station level: an approach based on distance-decay weighted regression," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1081-1092.
    5. Kuby, Michael & Barranda, Anthony & Upchurch, Christopher, 2004. "Factors influencing light-rail station boardings in the United States," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 223-247, March.
    6. Jinkyung Choi & Yong Lee & Taewan Kim & Keemin Sohn, 2012. "An analysis of Metro ridership at the station-to-station level in Seoul," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 705-722, May.
    7. Jun, Myung-Jin & Choi, Keechoo & Jeong, Ji-Eun & Kwon, Ki-Hyun & Kim, Hee-Jae, 2015. "Land use characteristics of subway catchment areas and their influence on subway ridership in Seoul," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 30-40.
    8. Singhal, Abhishek & Kamga, Camille & Yazici, Anil, 2014. "Impact of weather on urban transit ridership," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 379-391.
    9. Taylor, Brian D. & Miller, Douglas & Iseki, Hiroyuki & Fink, Camille, 2003. "Analyzing the Determinants of Transit Ridership Using a Two-Stage Least Squares Regression on a National Sample of Urbanized Areas," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt7xf3q4vh, University of California Transportation Center.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Shaoying & Lyu, Dijiang & Huang, Guanping & Zhang, Xiaohu & Gao, Feng & Chen, Yuting & Liu, Xiaoping, 2020. "Spatially varying impacts of built environment factors on rail transit ridership at station level: A case study in Guangzhou, China," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Ingvardson, Jesper Bláfoss & Nielsen, Otto Anker, 2018. "How urban density, network topology and socio-economy influence public transport ridership: Empirical evidence from 48 European metropolitan areas," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 50-63.
    3. Wang, Jing & Wan, Feng & Dong, Chunjiao & Yin, Chaoying & Chen, Xiaoyu, 2023. "Spatiotemporal effects of built environment factors on varying rail transit station ridership patterns," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    4. Kepaptsoglou, Konstantinos & Stathopoulos, Antony & Karlaftis, Matthew G., 2017. "Ridership estimation of a new LRT system: Direct demand model approach," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 146-156.
    5. Ding, Chuan & Cao, Xinyu & Liu, Chao, 2019. "How does the station-area built environment influence Metrorail ridership? Using gradient boosting decision trees to identify non-linear thresholds," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 70-78.
    6. Yadi Zhu & Feng Chen & Zijia Wang & Jin Deng, 2019. "Spatio-temporal analysis of rail station ridership determinants in the built environment," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(6), pages 2269-2289, December.
    7. Wu, Hao & Lee, Jinwoo (Brian) & Levinson, David, 2023. "The node-place model, accessibility, and station level transit ridership," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    8. Jun, Myung-Jin & Choi, Keechoo & Jeong, Ji-Eun & Kwon, Ki-Hyun & Kim, Hee-Jae, 2015. "Land use characteristics of subway catchment areas and their influence on subway ridership in Seoul," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 30-40.
    9. Christian Martin Mützel & Joachim Scheiner, 2022. "Investigating spatio-temporal mobility patterns and changes in metro usage under the impact of COVID-19 using Taipei Metro smart card data," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 343-366, June.
    10. Tu, Wei & Cao, Rui & Yue, Yang & Zhou, Baoding & Li, Qiuping & Li, Qingquan, 2018. "Spatial variations in urban public ridership derived from GPS trajectories and smart card data," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 45-57.
    11. Vergel-Tovar, C. Erik & Rodriguez, Daniel A., 2018. "The ridership performance of the built environment for BRT systems: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 172-184.
    12. Diab, Ehab & Kasraian, Dena & Miller, Eric J. & Shalaby, Amer, 2020. "The rise and fall of transit ridership across Canada: Understanding the determinants," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 101-112.
    13. Jinbao Zhao & Wei Deng & Yan Song & Yueran Zhu, 2014. "Analysis of Metro ridership at station level and station-to-station level in Nanjing: an approach based on direct demand models," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 133-155, January.
    14. Aston, Laura & Currie, Graham & Kamruzzaman, Md. & Delbosc, Alexa & Teller, David, 2020. "Study design impacts on built environment and transit use research," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    15. Jesper Bláfoss Ingvardson & Otto Anker Nielsen, 2022. "The influence of vicinity to stations, station characteristics and perceived safety on public transport mode choice: a case study from Copenhagen," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 459-480, June.
    16. Iseki, Hiroyuki & Liu, Chao & Knaap, Gerrit, 2018. "The determinants of travel demand between rail stations: A direct transit demand model using multilevel analysis for the Washington D.C. Metrorail system," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 635-649.
    17. Jiaoe Wang & Yanan Li & Jingjuan Jiao & Haitao Jin & Fangye Du, 2023. "Bus ridership and its determinants in Beijing: A spatial econometric perspective," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 383-406, April.
    18. Du, Qiang & Zhou, Yuqing & Huang, Youdan & Wang, Yalei & Bai, Libiao, 2022. "Spatiotemporal exploration of the non-linear impacts of accessibility on metro ridership," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    19. Su, Shiliang & Zhao, Chong & Zhou, Hao & Li, Bozhao & Kang, Mengjun, 2022. "Unraveling the relative contribution of TOD structural factors to metro ridership: A novel localized modeling approach with implications on spatial planning," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    20. Daeyoung Kwon & Sung Eun Sally Oh & Sangwon Choi & Brian H. S. Kim, 2023. "Viability of compact cities in the post-COVID-19 era: subway ridership variations in Seoul Korea," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 71(1), pages 175-203, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:48:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11116-020-10091-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.