IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/transp/v34y2007i1p1-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Guidelines for samplers: measuring a change in behaviour from before and after surveys

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Stopher

    ()

  • Stephen Greaves

Abstract

This paper addresses the issue of using before and after surveys to evaluate behavioural changes in response to transport policies and investments, a procedure that, we argue is done far too rarely in this profession. Further, it demonstrates very clearly that, in almost all conceivable cases, there are considerable economies to be obtained by using a panel (again, under-utilised in our profession) to undertake evaluation, rather than successive independent cross-sectional surveys. The paper also addresses the critical issue of sample size requirements for measuring changes of a relatively small magnitude in travel behaviour; i.e., to state, with 95% confidence, that if there is a ∂ percent change in behaviour for the sample, there is a ∂ percent ± e percent change in the behaviour of the population, where e is the sampling error. In this paper, we present a method for calculating such sample size requirements from first principles and demonstrate the applicability both hypothetically and then empirically using data from the Puget Sound Transportation Panel. The formulation enables designers of before and after surveys to investigate the trade-offs between the statistical accuracy of their predictions and the sample size requirements systematically, without the need to specify ∂ a priori. This latter point is crucial, we argue, because we have limited information on ∂, yet, as we explain here, it drives the sample size requirements using alternative, well-cited approaches for calculating sample sizes to assess behavioural change. The results have important ramifications both for those implementing transport policies intended to produce behavioural change, especially when a cost-benefit evaluation of the policy is desired, and for those interpreting the results reported in previous studies. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Stopher & Stephen Greaves, 2007. "Guidelines for samplers: measuring a change in behaviour from before and after surveys," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 1-16, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:34:y:2007:i:1:p:1-16
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-006-0002-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11116-006-0002-8
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Skamris, Mette K. & Flyvbjerg, Bent, 1997. "Inaccuracy of traffic forecasts and cost estimates on large transport projects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 141-146, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stopher, Peter & Clifford, Eoin & Swann, Natalie & Zhang, Yun, 2009. "Evaluating voluntary travel behaviour change: Suggested guidelines and case studies," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 315-324, November.
    2. Nadine Rieser-Schüssler & Kay W. Axhausen, 2014. "Self-tracing and reporting: state of the art in the capture of revealed behaviour," Chapters, in: Stephane Hess & Andrew Daly (ed.), Handbook of Choice Modelling, chapter 6, pages 131-151, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Chatterjee, Kiron, 2009. "A comparative evaluation of large-scale personal travel planning projects in England," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 293-305, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ihsan Issa Ahmad Hosani & Fikri T. Dweiri & Udechukwu Ojiako, 2020. "A study of cost overruns in complex multi-stakeholder road projects in the United Arab Emirates," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 11(6), pages 1250-1259, December.
    2. Brinkman, Anthony P., 2003. "The Ethical Challenges and Professional Responses of Travel Demand Forecasters," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt9c3330tt, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    3. Athias, Laure, 2007. "Political accountability, incentives, and Contractual design of public private partnerships," MPRA Paper 10538, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Daniel Shefer, 2014. "Sustainable Transportation and Urban Development," ERSA conference papers ersa14p306, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Trujillo, Lourdes & Quinet, Emile & Estache, Antonio, 2002. "Dealing with demand forecasting games in transport privatization," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 325-334, October.
    6. Brinkman, P. Anthony, 2003. "The Ethical Challenges and Professional Responses of Travel Demand Forecasters," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt7vb2d17h, University of California Transportation Center.
    7. Cathy Macharis & Peter Nijkamp, 2013. "Multi-actor and multi-criteria analysis in evaluating mega-projects," Chapters, in: Hugo Priemus & Bert van Wee (ed.), International Handbook on Mega-Projects, chapter 11, pages 242-266, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Knowles, Richard D. & Matthiessen, Christian W., 2009. "Barrier effects of international borders on fixed link traffic generation: the case of Øresundsbron," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 155-165.
    9. Cruz, Carlos Oliveira & Marques, Rui Cunha, 2011. "Contribution to the study of PPP arrangements in airport development, management and operation," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 392-400, March.
    10. C. Guccio & G. Pignataro & I. Rizzo, 2012. "Determinants of adaptation costs in procurement: an empirical estimation on Italian public works contracts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(15), pages 1891-1909, May.
    11. Patricia Mokhtarian & Ilan Salomon & Sangho Choo, 2005. "Measuring the Measurable: Why can’t we Agree on the Number of Telecommuters in the U.S.?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 423-452, August.
    12. Verweij, Stefan & van Meerkerk, Ingmar & Korthagen, Iris A., 2015. "Reasons for contract changes in implementing Dutch transportation infrastructure projects: An empirical exploration," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 195-202.
    13. Chong, Uven & Hopkins, Omar, 2016. "An international experience on the evolution of road costs during the project life cycle," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 60-66.
    14. Odeck, James, 2004. "Cost overruns in road construction--what are their sizes and determinants?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 43-53, January.
    15. Mokhtarian, Patricia L & Salomon, Ilan & Choo, Sangho, 2004. "Data and Measurement Issues in Transportation, With Telecommuting as a Case Study," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt9pt8s9jv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    16. Jarosław Górecki & Manuel Díaz-Madroñero, 2020. "Who Risks and Wins?—Simulated Cost Variance in Sustainable Construction Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(8), pages 1-31, April.
    17. Ihsan Issa Ahmad Hosani & Fikri T. Dweiri & Udechukwu Ojiako, 0. "A study of cost overruns in complex multi-stakeholder road projects in the United Arab Emirates," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 0, pages 1-10.
    18. Ouassim Manout & Patrick Bonnel, 2019. "The impact of ignoring intrazonal trips in assignment models: a stochastic approach," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(6), pages 2397-2417, December.
    19. Li, Shuai & Cai, Jiannan & Feng, Zhuo & Xu, Yifang & Cai, Hubo, 2019. "Government contracting with monopoly in infrastructure provision: Regulation or deregulation?," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 506-523.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:34:y:2007:i:1:p:1-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.