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Are put-call ratios a substitute for short sales?

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  • Benjamin Blau
  • Tyler Brough

Abstract

Prior research argues that pessimistic traders can use options as substitutes for short sales particularly when stocks are expensive to short. Motivated by this contention, we examine the relation between put-call ratios, short-selling activity, and constraints to short selling. Results show that (1) put-call ratios are inversely related, instead of directly related, to proxies for short-sale constraints and (2) the significant negative relation between current put-call ratios and future returns (Pan and Poteshman in Rev Financ Stud 19:871–908, 2006 ) is orthogonal to proxies for short-sale constraints. These results indicate that short-sale constraints do not influence bearish option activity. While prior studies show that short sellers are generally contrarian in contemporaneous and past returns, we find that put-call ratios follow periods of negative returns. However, any observed return predictability contained in put-call ratios is driven by ratios that follow periods of positive returns. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Blau & Tyler Brough, 2015. "Are put-call ratios a substitute for short sales?," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 51-73, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:revdev:v:18:y:2015:i:1:p:51-73
    DOI: 10.1007/s11147-014-9102-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Sangram Keshari Jena & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Amarnath Mitra, 2019. "Put–Call Ratio Volume vs. Open Interest in Predicting Market Return: A Frequency Domain Rolling Causality Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, March.
    2. Yi‐Wei Chuang & Wei‐Che Tsai & Pei‐Shih Weng & Chi Yin, 2021. "Do put warrants unwind short‐sale restrictions? Further evidence from the Taiwan Stock Exchange," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 325-348, March.
    3. R. Jared DeLisle & Bong Soo Lee & Nathan Mauck, 2016. "The dynamic relation between options trading, short selling, and aggregate stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 645-671, October.
    4. Hannes Mohrschladt & Judith C. Schneider, 2021. "Idiosyncratic volatility, option-based measures of informed trading, and investor attention," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 197-220, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Options; Short sales; Short sale constraints; Informed trading; G10; G14;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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