Win, Place or Show: Gauging the Economic Success of the Renoir and Barnes Art Exhibits

Special art exhibits, sometimes known as``blockbusters'', are often thought of as tourism andbusiness generators. This belief is fostered byeconomic impact studies that bravely estimate thetotal gross domestic product or total jobs ``created''by such exhibits. Unfortunately, the enthusiasm of theexhibit promoters often leads them to the uncritical useof methodologies that exaggerate the size of theexhibit's contribution to the local economy. Fortunately, such methodologies are well understoodand corrective measures are available to make theestimates they produce more realistic and useful foradvocacy purposes. This paper presents a comparisonof two studies done in Canada to provide arts managerswith a gauge for realistically forecasting thepotential impact of planned ``blockbusters''.Several Canadian art galleries have recently hostedspecial art exhibits, notably the Renoir Portraits atthe National Gallery of Canada and the BarnesExhibition at the Art Gallery of Ontario. They havesurveyed the visitors to them using a correctivemethodology that enables researchers to determinewhich visitors came to the region only because of theexistence of the exhibit and which would have come tothe region and spent money whether the exhibit existedor not. These data enables researchers to estimatequite accurately the amount of visitor spending thatis actually due to the exhibit. This lower, but morecredible, estimate is very useful in helping promotersobtain exhibit sponsorship from local tourismbusinesses who have become skeptical of theexaggerated claims of economic impact estimates basedon standard survey approaches. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000