Intertemporal asset allocation when the underlying factors are unobservable
The aim of this paper is to develop an optimal long-term bond investment strategy which can be applied to real market situations. This paper employs Merton’s intertemporal framework to accommodate the features of a stochastic interest rate and the time-varying dynamics of bond returns. The long-term investors encounter a partial information problem where they can only observe the market bond prices but not the driving factors of the variability of the interest rate and the bond return dynamics. With the assumption of Gaussian factor dynamics, we are able to develop an analytical solution for the optimal long-term investment strategies under the case of full information. To apply the best theoretical investment strategy to the real market we need to be aware of the existence of measurement errors representing the gap between theoretical and empirical models. We estimate the model based on data for the German securities market and then the estimation results are employed to develop long-term bond investment strategies. Because of the presence of measurement errors, we provide a simulation study to examine the performance of the best theoretical investment strategy. We find that the measurement errors have a great impact on the optimality of the investment strategies and that under certain circumstance the best theoretical investment strategies may not perform so well in a real market situation. In the simulation study, we also investigate the role of information about the variability of the stochastic interest rate and the bond return dynamics. Our results show that this information can indeed be used to advantage in making sensible long-term investment decisions. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007
Volume (Year): 29 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100248|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Munk, Claus & Sorensen, Carsten & Nygaard Vinther, Tina, 2004. "Dynamic asset allocation under mean-reverting returns, stochastic interest rates, and inflation uncertainty: Are popular recommendations consistent with rational behavior?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 141-166.
- Michael J. Brennan & Yihong Xia, 2002. "Dynamic Asset Allocation under Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1201-1238, 06.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Liu, Jun & Pan, Jun, 2003.
"Dynamic Derivative Strategies,"
4334-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Philippe Robert-Demontrond & R. Ringoot, 2004. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00081823, HAL.
- Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
- Michael J. Brennan & Ashley W. Wang & Yihong Xia, 2004. "Estimation and Test of a Simple Model of Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1743-1776, 08.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-84, March.
- Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S. & Lagnado, Ronald, 1997. "Strategic asset allocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1377-1403, June.
- Cox, John C. & Huang, Chi-fu, 1989. "Optimal consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices follow a diffusion process," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 33-83, October.
- Kim, Tong Suk & Omberg, Edward, 1996. "Dynamic Nonmyopic Portfolio Behavior," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 141-61.
- Carl Chiarella & Boda Kang & Gunter H. Meyer, 2014. "Introduction," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Numerical Solution of the American Option Pricing Problem Finite Difference and Transform Approaches, chapter 1, pages 1-2 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- L. Randall Wray & Stephanie Bell, 2004. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Credit and State Theories of Money, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:29:y:2007:i:3:p:383-418. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.