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Democracy and Durability: Empirical Analysis and a Causality Test

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  • Abdiweli Ali

Abstract

The current literature has failed to differentiate between the collapse of democratic and authoritarian rules or whether democratic regimes collapse for the same reasons as do authoritarian regimes. Therefore, the current literature is silent on whether democracies are more fragile or less susceptible to economic and political breakdowns. Using a multitude of political instability variables, this paper explores empirically, whether political freedom and civil liberty (a proxy for democracy) has any effect on the stability of the political order. The empirical results of the paper confirm the hypothesis that democracy is conducive to political stability; the higher the level of political freedom and civil liberty, the more stable countries are. The paper also presented a Granger-causality test of political instability and the level of political freedom and civil liberty. The test results indicate that the level of political freedom and civil liberty Granger-cause the level of political instability, while the level of political instability does not Granger-cause the level of political freedom and civil liberty. The test results indicate that Granger-causality runs one-way from political freedom and civil liberty to political instability and not the other way. A further comprehensive research is needed on the multi-layered and the complex relationship among democracy and the resilience of the political order. Copyright IAES 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Abdiweli Ali, 2005. "Democracy and Durability: Empirical Analysis and a Causality Test," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(1), pages 105-114, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:33:y:2005:i:1:p:105-114
    DOI: 10.1007/s11293-005-1648-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    3. Lipset, Seymour Martin, 1959. "Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 69-105, March.
    4. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    5. Clague, Christopher & Keefer, Philip & Knack, Stephen & Olson, Mancur, 1996. "Property and Contract Rights in Autocracies and Democracies," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 243-276, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    H11; O17; O40; P51;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • P51 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems

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