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The use of encompassing tests for forecast combinations

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  • Turgut Kışınbay

Abstract

This paper proposes an algorithm that uses forecast encompassing tests for combining forecasts when there are a large number of forecasts that might enter the combination. The algorithm excludes a forecast from the combination if it is encompassed by another forecast. To assess the usefulness of this approach, an extensive empirical analysis is undertaken using a US macroeconomic dataset. The results are encouraging; the algorithm forecasts outperform benchmark model forecasts, in a mean square error (MSE) sense, in a majority of cases. The paper also compares the empirical performance of different approaches to forecast combination, and provides a rule-of‐thumb cut‐off point for the thick‐modeling approach. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Turgut Kışınbay, 2010. "The use of encompassing tests for forecast combinations," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(8), pages 715-727, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:29:y:2010:i:8:p:715-727
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1170
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonis Michis, 2012. "Monitoring Forecasting Combinations with Semiparametric Regression Models," Working Papers 2012-02, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    2. Cang, Shuang & Yu, Hongnian, 2014. "A combination selection algorithm on forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 127-139.
    3. Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Carmine Pappalardo, 2017. "The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 79-99, August.
    4. Morales-Arias, Leonardo & Moura, Guilherme V., 2013. "Adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 493-509.
    5. Costantini, Mauro & Pappalardo, Carmine, 2010. "A hierarchical procedure for the combination of forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 725-743, October.
    6. Morales-Arias, Leonardo & Dross, Alexander, 2010. "Adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data," Kiel Working Papers 1656, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

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