IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jns/jbstat/v235y2015i6p608-629.html

Spekulation am Terminmarkt und die Preisentwicklung von Agrarrohstoffen am Kassamarkt: Eine Zeitreihenanalyse der CFTC Berichte für Weizen, Mais und Sojabohnen / Speculation in Futures Markets and the Impact on Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Time Series Analysis of the CFTC Reports for Wheat, Corn and Soybeans

Author

Listed:
  • Maul Daniel

    (Technische Universität Darmstadt, Fachbereich Rechts- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Fachgebiet Unternehmensfinanzierung, Hochschulstraße 1, 64289 Darmstadt, Germany)

  • Fischer Martin

    (Technische Universität Darmstadt, Fachbereich Rechts- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Fachgebiet Unternehmensfinanzierung, Hochschulstraße 1, 64289 Darmstadt, Germany)

  • Schiereck Dirk

    (Technische Universität Darmstadt, Fachbereich Rechts- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Fachgebiet Unternehmensfinanzierung, Hochschulstraße 1, 64289 Darmstadt, Germany)

Abstract

Over the last few years, rising prices and increasing price volatility of major agricultural food commodities were observed. This caused a debate among various organizations about who is responsible for this development. While many Non-Governmental Organizations proclaim that speculations in future markets cause the rise in food prices, academic research provides ambiguous results on this topic. This controversy is the motivation for this study. In order to offer additional insights, the relationship between the price changes of corn, wheat, and soybeans and the corresponding changes in open interests are analyzed. Commitments of Traders as well as Disaggregated Commitments of Traders reports are investigated to determine whether the activities of speculators adversely affect food prices. First, Johansen cointegration tests are employed to analyze the relationship between price and position data. Second, VAR and VECM are used to analyze short- and long-term dynamics. The results of the empirical analysis demonstrate that in the short-run price changes precede changes in open interest. Additionally, soybeans show a long-run equilibrium relationship between both series, indicating that speculators influenced past prices to some extent. However, the percentage price change is rather low. Therefore, sharp rises in soybean prices cannot be explained by it.

Suggested Citation

  • Maul Daniel & Fischer Martin & Schiereck Dirk, 2015. "Spekulation am Terminmarkt und die Preisentwicklung von Agrarrohstoffen am Kassamarkt: Eine Zeitreihenanalyse der CFTC Berichte für Weizen, Mais und Sojabohnen / Speculation in Futures Markets and the Impact on Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Time S," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(6), pages 608-629, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:235:y:2015:i:6:p:608-629
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2015-0606
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2015-0606
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/jbnst-2015-0606?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:cup:cbooks:9781107034662 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425, June.
    3. Louis Ederington & Jae Ha Lee, 2002. "Who Trades Futures and How: Evidence from the Heating Oil Futures Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 353-374, April.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/607 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:aen:journl:2011v32-02-a07 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Brooks,Chris, 2014. "Introductory Econometrics for Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107661455, December.
    7. Domowitz, Ian & Hansch, Oliver & Wang, Xiaoxin, 2005. "Liquidity commonality and return co-movement," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 351-376, November.
    8. Dietrich Domanski & Alexandra Heath, 2007. "Financial investors and commodity markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    9. Helyette Geman, 2005. "Commodities and Commodity Derivatives. Modeling and Pricing for Agriculturals, Metals and Energy," Post-Print halshs-00144182, HAL.
    10. Du, Xiaodong & Yu, Cindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2011. "Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 497-503, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Feil, Jan-Henning & Wendt, Thilo, "undated". "Anwendung der Prozesskostenrechnung im Ackerbau," 57th Annual Conference, Weihenstephan, Germany, September 13-15, 2017 262150, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    2. Christian Koziol & Tilo Treuter, 2019. "How do speculators in agricultural commodity markets impact production decisions and commodity prices? A theoretical analysis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 25(3), pages 718-743, June.
    3. Ballmann, Lars & Feil, Jan-Henning, 2020. "Anwendung der Prozesskostenrechnung in der Milchproduktion," 60th Annual Conference, Halle/ Saale, Germany, September 23-25, 2020 305606, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    4. Ballmann, Lars & Feil, Jan-Henning, "undated". "Anwendung der Prozesskostenrechnung in der Milchproduktion," 60th Annual Conference, Halle/ Saale, Germany, September 23-25, 2020 305606, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yao, Wei, 2025. "The US Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy and Commodities’ Prices," Other publications TiSEM 185d14d3-9dc2-4276-82ec-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Debasish Maitra & Varun Dawar, 2019. "Return and Volatility Spillover among Commodity Futures, Stock Market and Exchange Rate: Evidence from India," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 214-237, February.
    3. Yao, Wei & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2024. "On the transmission mechanism between the inventory arbitrage activity, speculative activity and the commodity price under the US QE policy: Evidence from a TVP-VAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1054-1072.
    4. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
    5. Duc Huynh, Toan Luu & Burggraf, Tobias & Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2020. "Financialisation of natural resources & instability caused by risk transfer in commodity markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Ding Chen & Umar Muhammad Gummi & Shanbing Lu & Adamu Hassan, 2024. "Oil price, economic policy uncertainty and food prices in oil-exporting and oil-importing developing economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1-22, August.
    7. Adam Zaremba, 2015. "Inflation, Business Cycles, and Commodity Investing in Financialized Markets," Business and Economics Research Journal, Bursa Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18.
    8. Nicola, Francesca de & De Pace, Pierangelo & Hernandez, Manuel A., 2016. "Co-movement of major energy, agricultural, and food commodity price returns: A time-series assessment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 28-41.
    9. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 225-243.
    10. Jebabli, Ikram & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 66-98.
    11. Adam Zaremba, 2016. "Strategies Based on Momentum and Term Structure in Financialized Commodity Markets," Business and Economics Research Journal, Bursa Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 7(1), pages 31-46.
    12. Stewart, Shamar L. & Isengildina Massa, Olga, 2024. "Food & Oil Price Volatility Dynamics: Insights from a TVP-SVAR-DCC-MIDAS Model," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343936, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Guhathakurta, Kousik & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2020. "Period specific volatility spillover based connectedness between oil and other commodity prices and their portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    14. Boyd, Naomi E. & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Li, Bingxin, 2018. "An update on speculation and financialization in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 91-104.
    15. Algieri, Bernardina, 2012. "Price Volatility, Speculation and Excessive Speculation in Commodity Markets: sheep or shepherd behaviour?," Discussion Papers 124390, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    16. Shanker, Latha, 2017. "New indices of adequate and excess speculation and their relationship with volatility in the crude oil futures market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 18-35.
    17. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2013. "Dissecting Corn Price Movements with Directed Acyclic Graphs," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151279, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Bakas, Dimitrios & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2018. "The impact of uncertainty shocks on the volatility of commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 96-111.
    19. Sadorsky, Perry, 2014. "Modeling volatility and correlations between emerging market stock prices and the prices of copper, oil and wheat," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 72-81.
    20. M. Thenmozhi & Shipra Maurya, 2020. "Crude Oil Volatility Transmission Across Food Commodity Markets: A Multivariate BEKK-GARCH Approach," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 20(2), pages 131-164, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:235:y:2015:i:6:p:608-629. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyterbrill.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.