IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v65y2019i12p5584-5602.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Matter of Principle: Accounting Reports Convey Both Cash-Flow News and Discount-Rate News

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen H. Penman

    (Columbia Business School, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

  • Nir Yehuda

    (University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware 19716)

Abstract

This paper modifies the standard returns-earnings regression in accounting research to show that financial reports convey both cash-flow news and discount-rate (expected-return) news. The paper points to the realization principle, associated as it is with the resolution of risk, as the accounting feature that conveys expected-return news. The modified returns-earnings regressions indicate that the information so conveyed pertains to priced risk. In corroboration, the paper also shows that the identified expected-return news forecasts changes in both stock return betas and earnings betas, and expected-return news predicts future returns, whereas cash-flow news does not. The analysis yields a number of additional insights: financial statements distinguish expected-return news associated with operations from that associated with financing activities; given accounting information, there is not much news in dividends; and, in comparing the information content of earnings versus cash flows, cash flows largely convey expected-return news rather than cash-flow news. In sum, the paper shows that the objective of the Financial Accounting Standards Board and International Accounting Standards Board to provide information about the amount and uncertainty of future cash flows is (as least, partially) satisfied by accounting principles underlying current financial reporting.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen H. Penman & Nir Yehuda, 2019. "A Matter of Principle: Accounting Reports Convey Both Cash-Flow News and Discount-Rate News," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(12), pages 5584-5602, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:65:y:2019:i:12:p:5584-5602
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2018.3187
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3187
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3187?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ali, A & Zarowin, P, 1992. "The Role Of Earnings Levels In Annual Earnings Returns Studies," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 286-296.
    2. Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "What Drives Firm‐Level Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 233-264, February.
    3. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    4. Easton, Pd & Harris, Ts, 1991. "Earnings As An Explanatory Variable For Returns," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 19-36.
    5. Ohlson, Ja & Shroff, Pk, 1992. "Changes Versus Levels In Earnings As Explanatory Variables For Returns - Some Theoretical Considerations," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 210-226.
    6. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    7. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    8. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    9. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    10. Dechow, Patricia M. & Kothari, S. P. & L. Watts, Ross, 1998. "The relation between earnings and cash flows," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 133-168, May.
    11. Rayburn, J, 1986. "The Association Of Operating Cash Flow And Accruals With Security Returns," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24, pages 112-133.
    12. Easton, Peter D. & Harris, Trevor S. & Ohlson, James A., 1992. "Aggregate accounting earnings can explain most of security returns : The case of long return intervals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2-3), pages 119-142, August.
    13. Jeffrey L. Callen & Dan Segal, 2004. "Do Accruals Drive Firm‐Level Stock Returns? A Variance Decomposition Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 527-560, June.
    14. Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411-411.
    15. Jennifer Francis & Katherine Schipper & Linda Vincent, 2003. "The Relative and Incremental Explanatory Power of Earnings and Alternative (to Earnings) Performance Measures for Returns," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(1), pages 121-164, March.
    16. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J, 1970. "Marginal Stockholder Tax Rates and the Clientele Effect," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 52(1), pages 68-74, February.
    17. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    18. Ball, R & Brown, P, 1968. "Empirical Evaluation Of Accounting Income Numbers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 159-178.
    19. Peter Hecht & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2006. "Explaining Returns with Cash-Flow Proxies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 159-194.
    20. Lev, B, 1989. "On The Usefulness Of Earnings And Earnings Research - Lessons And Directions From 2 Decades Of Empirical-Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27, pages 153-192.
    21. Stephen H. Penman & Francesco Reggiani & Scott A. Richardson & İrem Tuna, 2018. "A framework for identifying accounting characteristics for asset pricing models, with an evaluation of book‐to‐price," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(4), pages 488-520, September.
    22. Penman, Stephen H., 1987. "The distribution of earnings news over time and seasonalities in aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 199-228, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bradley Blaylock & Bradley P. Lawson & Michael A. Mayberry, 2020. "Taxable income, future profitability, and stock returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(7-8), pages 858-881, July.
    2. Srivastava, Pranjal & Jacob, Joshy, 2022. "Risk information - normal markets and the COVID-19 pandemic period," IIMA Working Papers WP 2022-10-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    3. Charles G. Ham & Zachary R. Kaplan & Steven Utke, 2023. "Attention to dividends, inattention to earnings?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 265-306, March.
    4. Veronika Jezkova & Zuzana Rowland & Veronika Machova & Jan Hejda, 2020. "The Intrinsic Value of an Enterprise Determined by Means of the FCFE Tool," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-13, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Atif Ellahie, 2021. "Earnings beta," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-122, March.
    2. Gil Sadka, 2007. "Understanding Stock Price Volatility: The Role of Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 199-228, March.
    3. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    4. Mohsen Jafarian & Fauzias Mat Nor & Izani Ibrahim, 2018. "The Relative Importance of Cash Flow News and Discount Rate News at Driving Stock Price Change," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 56-72.
    5. S. P. Kothari & Charles Wasley, 2019. "Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(5), pages 1117-1159, December.
    6. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2015. "Macro variables and the components of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 287-308.
    7. Easterday, Kathryn E. & Sen, Pradyot K., 2016. "Is the January effect rational? Insights from the accounting valuation model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 168-185.
    8. Bin Li, 2021. "Separating Information About Cash Flows from Information About Risk in Losses," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 3570-3595, June.
    9. Yaowen Shan & Stephen Taylor & Terry Walter, 2013. "Fundamentals or Managerial Discretion? The Relationship between Accrual Variability and Future Stock Return Volatility," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 49(4), pages 441-475, December.
    10. Khan, Mozaffar, 2008. "Are accruals mispriced Evidence from tests of an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 55-77, March.
    11. Yaniv Konchitchki & Yan Luo & Mary L. Z. Ma & Feng Wu, 2016. "Accounting-based downside risk, cost of capital, and the macroeconomy," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-36, March.
    12. Nikos Vafeas & Lenos Trigeorgis & Xenia Georgiou, 1998. "The usefulness of earnings in explaining stock returns in an emerging market: the case of Cyprus," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 105-124.
    13. Wu, Ming & Ohk, Kiyool & Ko, Kwangsoo, 2019. "Are cash-flow betas really bad? Evidence from the Greater Chinese stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 58-68.
    14. Chen, Linda H. & Jiang, George J. & Zhu, Kevin X., 2018. "Total attention: The effect of macroeconomic news on market reaction to earnings news," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 142-156.
    15. Mao, Mike Qinghao & Wei, K.C. John, 2014. "Price and earnings momentum: An explanation using return decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 332-351.
    16. Chiang, Raymond & Davidson, Ian & Okunev, John, 1997. "Some further theoretical and empirical implications regarding the relationship between earnings, dividends and stock prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 17-35, January.
    17. Sadka, Gil & Sadka, Ronnie, 2009. "Predictability and the earnings-returns relation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 87-106, October.
    18. Cenesizoglu, Tolga, 2011. "Size, book-to-market ratio and macroeconomic news," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 248-270, March.
    19. Ball, Ray & Sadka, Gil, 2015. "Aggregate earnings and why they matter," Journal of Accounting Literature, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 39-57.
    20. Mohamed Sellami, 2006. "Typologie des déterminants comptables de la valeur : Apports de l'approche économique de l'information dans la mesure de la valeur," Post-Print halshs-00558252, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:65:y:2019:i:12:p:5584-5602. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.