Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?
Firm-level sales forecasts for retailers can be improved if we incorporate cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin (defined by us as the ratio of sales to cost of goods sold) as three endogenous variables. We construct a simultaneous equations model, estimated using public financial and nonfinancial data, to provide joint forecasts of annual cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin for retailers using historical data. We show that sales forecasts from this model are more accurate than consensus forecasts from equity analysts. Further, the residuals from this model for one fiscal year are used to predict retailers for whom the relative advantage of model forecasts over consensus forecasts would be large in the next fiscal year. Our results show that historical inventory and gross margin contain information useful to forecast sales, and that equity analysts do not fully utilize this information in their sales forecasts.
Volume (Year): 56 (2010)
Issue (Month): 9 (September)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 7240 Parkway Drive, Suite 300, Hanover, MD 21076 USA|
Web page: http://www.informs.org/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert Conroy & Robert Harris, 1987. "Consensus Forecasts of Corporate Earnings: Analysts' Forecasts and Time Series Methods," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(6), pages 725-738, June.
- Garrett van Ryzin & Siddharth Mahajan, 1999. "On the Relationship Between Inventory Costs and Variety Benefits in Retail Assortments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(11), pages 1496-1509, November.
- Sunder Kekre & Kannan Srinivasan, 1990. "Broader Product Line: A Necessity to Achieve Success?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(10), pages 1216-1232, October.
- Hong Chen & Murray Z. Frank & Owen Q. Wu, 2005. "What Actually Happened to the Inventories of American Companies Between 1981 and 2000?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(7), pages 1015-1031, July.
- Joseph Hall & Evan Porteus, 2000. "Customer Service Competition in Capacitated Systems," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 2(2), pages 144-165, November.
- Ivkovic, Zoran & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 2004. "The timing and value of forecast and recommendation revisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 433-463, September.
- James D. Dana, Jr. & Nicholas C. Petruzzi, 2001. "Note: The Newsvendor Model with Endogenous Demand," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(11), pages 1488-1497, November.
- Mest, David P & Plummer, Elizabeth, 2003. "Analysts' Rationality and Forecast Bias: Evidence from Sales Forecasts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 103-22, September.
- Sergey Rumyantsev & Serguei Netessine, 2007. "What Can Be Learned from Classical Inventory Models? A Cross-Industry Exploratory Investigation," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 409-429, April.
- Kevin B. Hendricks & Vinod R. Singhal, 2008. "The Effect of Product Introduction Delays on Operating Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(5), pages 878-892, May.
- Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994.
"Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Jeffery C. Fuhrer & David W. Wilcox, 1994. "RATS code for Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," QM&RBC Codes 49, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Charles J. Corbett & María J. Montes-Sancho & David A. Kirsch, 2005. "The Financial Impact of ISO 9000 Certification in the United States: An Empirical Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(7), pages 1046-1059, July.
- Vishal Gaur & Marshall L. Fisher & Ananth Raman, 2005. "An Econometric Analysis of Inventory Turnover Performance in Retail Services," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(2), pages 181-194, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:56:y:2010:i:9:p:1519-1533. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.