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Using Common Random Numbers for Indifference-Zone Selection and Multiple Comparisons in Simulation

Author

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  • Barry L. Nelson

    (Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208-3119)

  • Frank J. Matejcik

    (Industrial Engineering, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, South Dakota 57701-3995)

Abstract

We present a general recipe for constructing experiment design and analysis procedures that simultaneously provide indifference-zone selection and multiple-comparison inference for choosing the best among k simulated systems. We then exhibit two such procedures that exploit the variance-reduction technique of common random numbers to reduce the sample size required to attain a fixed precision. One procedure is based on the Bonferroni inequality and is guaranteed to be statistically conservative. The other procedure is exact under a specific dependence structure, but may be slightly liberal otherwise. Both are easy to apply, requiring only simple calculations and tabled constants. We illustrate the procedures with a numerical example.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry L. Nelson & Frank J. Matejcik, 1995. "Using Common Random Numbers for Indifference-Zone Selection and Multiple Comparisons in Simulation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(12), pages 1935-1945, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:41:y:1995:i:12:p:1935-1945
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.41.12.1935
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    Cited by:

    1. Oliver Hinz & Jochen Eckert, 2010. "The Impact of Search and Recommendation Systems on Sales in Electronic Commerce," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 2(2), pages 67-77, April.
    2. Eric C. Ni & Dragos F. Ciocan & Shane G. Henderson & Susan R. Hunter, 2017. "Efficient Ranking and Selection in Parallel Computing Environments," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(3), pages 821-836, June.
    3. Diana M. Negoescu & Peter I. Frazier & Warren B. Powell, 2011. "The Knowledge-Gradient Algorithm for Sequencing Experiments in Drug Discovery," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 23(3), pages 346-363, August.
    4. Eunhye Song & Barry L. Nelson, 2019. "Input–Output Uncertainty Comparisons for Discrete Optimization via Simulation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 562-576, March.
    5. Stephen E. Chick & Koichiro Inoue, 2001. "New Two-Stage and Sequential Procedures for Selecting the Best Simulated System," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 732-743, October.
    6. Stephen E. Chick & Koichiro Inoue, 2001. "New Procedures to Select the Best Simulated System Using Common Random Numbers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(8), pages 1133-1149, August.
    7. Nakayama, Marvin K., 2007. "Fixed-width multiple-comparison procedures using common random numbers for steady-state simulations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(3), pages 1330-1349, November.
    8. Michael C. Fu & Jian-Qiang Hu & Chun-Hung Chen & Xiaoping Xiong, 2007. "Simulation Allocation for Determining the Best Design in the Presence of Correlated Sampling," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 19(1), pages 101-111, February.
    9. Barry L. Nelson & Julie Swann & David Goldsman & Wheyming Song, 2001. "Simple Procedures for Selecting the Best Simulated System When the Number of Alternatives is Large," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 49(6), pages 950-963, December.
    10. Huashuai Qu & Ilya O. Ryzhov & Michael C. Fu & Zi Ding, 2015. "Sequential Selection with Unknown Correlation Structures," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(4), pages 931-948, August.
    11. Ye Chen & Ilya O. Ryzhov, 2023. "Balancing Optimal Large Deviations in Sequential Selection," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3457-3473, June.
    12. Barry L. Nelson & David Goldsman, 2001. "Comparisons with a Standard in Simulation Experiments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(3), pages 449-463, March.
    13. Anton J. Kleywegt & Vijay S. Nori & Martin W. P. Savelsbergh, 2004. "Dynamic Programming Approximations for a Stochastic Inventory Routing Problem," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(1), pages 42-70, February.
    14. Barry L. Nelson, 2004. "50th Anniversary Article: Stochastic Simulation Research in Management Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(7), pages 855-868, July.
    15. Anton J. Kleywegt & Vijay S. Nori & Martin W. P. Savelsbergh, 2002. "The Stochastic Inventory Routing Problem with Direct Deliveries," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(1), pages 94-118, February.
    16. Tsai, Shing Chih, 2011. "Selecting the best simulated system with weighted control-variate estimators," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 82(4), pages 705-717.
    17. Jacobson, Sheldon H. & McLay, Laura A., 2009. "Applying statistical tests to empirically compare tabu search parameters for MAX 3-SATISFIABILITY: A case study," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 522-534, June.
    18. Justin Boesel & Barry L. Nelson & Seong-Hee Kim, 2003. "Using Ranking and Selection to “Clean Up” after Simulation Optimization," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(5), pages 814-825, October.
    19. Stephen E. Chick & Yaozhong Wu, 2005. "Selection Procedures with Frequentist Expected Opportunity Cost Bounds," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(5), pages 867-878, October.
    20. Siyang Gao & Weiwei Chen & Leyuan Shi, 2017. "A New Budget Allocation Framework for the Expected Opportunity Cost," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(3), pages 787-803, June.
    21. Jing Xie & Peter I. Frazier & Stephen E. Chick, 2016. "Bayesian Optimization via Simulation with Pairwise Sampling and Correlated Prior Beliefs," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 542-559, April.
    22. Jason R. W. Merrick, 2009. "Bayesian Simulation and Decision Analysis: An Expository Survey," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 6(4), pages 222-238, December.
    23. Rafiei, Rezvan & Nourelfath, Mustapha & Gaudreault, Jonathan & De Santa-Eulalia, Luis Antonio & Bouchard, Mathieu, 2015. "Dynamic safety stock in co-production demand-driven wood remanufacturing mills: A case study," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 90-99.

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