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Balancing Optimal Large Deviations in Sequential Selection

Author

Listed:
  • Ye Chen

    (Statistical Sciences and Operations Research, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia 23284)

  • Ilya O. Ryzhov

    (Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742)

Abstract

In the ranking and selection problem, a sampling budget is allocated among a finite number of designs with the goal of efficiently identifying the best. Allocations of this budget may be static (with no dependence on the random values of the samples) or adaptive (decisions are made based on the results of previous decisions). A popular methodological strategy in the simulation literature is to first characterize optimal static allocations by using large deviations theory to derive a set of optimality conditions, and then to use these conditions to guide the design of adaptive allocations. We propose a new methodology that can be guaranteed to adaptively learn the solution to these optimality conditions in a computationally efficient manner, without any tunable parameters, and under a wide variety of parametric sampling distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ye Chen & Ilya O. Ryzhov, 2023. "Balancing Optimal Large Deviations in Sequential Selection," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3457-3473, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:69:y:2023:i:6:p:3457-3473
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2022.4527
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chao Qin & Daniel Russo, 2024. "Optimizing Adaptive Experiments: A Unified Approach to Regret Minimization and Best-Arm Identification," Papers 2402.10592, arXiv.org.

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