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Efectos de corto y largo plazo de los programas de condonación de créditos fiscales en la recaudación del Impuesto al Valor Agregado

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Moreno

    (Universidad Anáhuac México Norte)

  • Jaime H. Beltrán

    (Universidad Anáhuac México Norte)

  • Leovardo Mata

    (Universidad Anáhuac México Norte)

Abstract

El objetivo es determinar el impacto de corto y largo plazo de los programas de amnistía fiscal de 2007 y 2013 en la recaudación del IVA en México para el periodo 1980 - 2016. Para el análisis se utilizó un modelo ARIMA multivariado. Los resultados muestran que los programas de condonación de créditos fiscales no afectaron la recaudación del IVA en el largo plazo, el efecto predominante muestra un cambio de nivel con ajuste de corto plazo. Se recomienda no utilizar estos programas con fines recaudatorios, ya que no generan efectos en el largo plazo y tampoco benefician al cumplimiento voluntario. Para el análisis, fue necesario asegurar que se trabaja con series estacionarias y no correlacionadas. La originalidad radica en la metodología utilizada para determinar el impacto de los programas de amnistía fiscal promulgados por el gobierno de México para incrementar la recaudación pública. En consenso con la literatura, se confirma un efecto de corto plazo sobre el nivel de la recaudación del IVA y la ausencia de algún efecto de largo plazo.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Moreno & Jaime H. Beltrán & Leovardo Mata, 2019. "Efectos de corto y largo plazo de los programas de condonación de créditos fiscales en la recaudación del Impuesto al Valor Agregado," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(1), pages 113-128, Enero-Mar.
    • Handle: RePEc:imx:journl:v:14:y:2019:i:1:p:113-128
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    amnistía; impuestos; recaudación; IVA; ARIMA multivariado;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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