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The Monthly Measurement of Core Inflation in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Bryan, Michael-F

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

  • Cecchetti, Stephen-G

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York and NBER)

Abstract

This paper considers the use of trimmed means as monthly indicators of Japanese core inflation. As in Bryan, Cecchetti, and Wiggins (1997) for the United States, and Roger (1997) for New Zealand, we find that trimming the tails of the price change distribution substantially improves high-frequency estimates of Japanese core inflation. These estimators yield efficiency gains of roughly two-thirds over the Japanese CPI. While we find that trimming approximately 35 percent from each tail of the price change distribution produces the most efficient monthly estimator over the full 27-year period, a range of trimmed-mean estimators (between 21 percent and the median price change) provide nearly the same signal. Moreover, we find that these estimators are superior to the standard monthly core inflation estimator in Japan, the CPI less fresh food. At lower frequencies (12-month percent changes and beyond), the differences between the candidate estimators were found to be small, and the trimmed estimators were nearly the same as the CPI less fresh food and energy along many dimensions.

Suggested Citation

  • Bryan, Michael-F & Cecchetti, Stephen-G, 1999. "The Monthly Measurement of Core Inflation in Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 17(1), pages 77-101, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:17:y:1999:i:1:p:77-101
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    File URL: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/me17-1-3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Balke, Nathan S. & Wynne, Mark A., 2000. "An equilibrium analysis of relative price changes and aggregate inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 269-292, April.
    2. Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 1997. "Inflation Measures for Monetary Policy: Measuring the Underlying Inflation Trend and Its Implication for Monetary Policy Implementation," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 15(2), pages 1-26, December.
    3. Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-1144, September.
    4. Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 1991. "State-Dependent Pricing and the Dynamics of Money and Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 683-708.
    5. Caballero, Ricardo J & Engel, Eduardo M R A, 1991. "Dynamic (S, s) Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1659-1686, November.
    6. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997. "Measuring short-run inflation for central bankers," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 143-155.
    7. Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-1144, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan-Luis Vega & Mark A. Wynne, 2003. "A First Assessment of Some Measures of Core Inflation for the Euro Area," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4, pages 269-306, August.
    2. Meyler, Aidan, 1999. "A Statistical Measure Of Core Inflation," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/99, Central Bank of Ireland.
    3. Ivan Roberts, 2005. "Underlying Inflation: Concepts, Measurement and Performance," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Fiorencio, A & Moreira, A.R.B., 2000. "O Núcleo da Inflação como a Tendência Comum dos Preços," Insper Working Papers wpe_2, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    5. L. Aucremanne, 2001. "The use of Robust Estimators as Measures of Core Inflation," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 61, Netherlands Central Bank.
    6. Luc Aucremanne, 2000. "The use of robust estimators as measures of core inflation," Working Paper Research 02, National Bank of Belgium.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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