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El nivel adecuado de reservas internacionales: notas para el caso venezolano

Author

Listed:
  • Leonardo Vera

    (Universidad Central de Venezuela)

  • Luis Zambrano Sequín

    (Universidad Católica Andrés Bello)

Abstract

Based on a standard set of factors pointed out by the literature we analyze the recent and rapid accumulation of international reserves in Venezuela. Among other things, we characterize the Venezuelan case and conduct a statistical analysis using a quarterly time series model between 1996 and 2004. The specification follows closely Aizenman and Marion (2002). Both a static and dynamic econometric version of the model allows us to report some of the factors that influence the decision to hold foreign exchange reserves. When we calculate the adequate level of reserves, using the econometric specifications, we found that excess reserves are not currently high and that the results do not diverge much from the traditional Heller's methodology. Finally, we undertake an evaluation of the alternatives pointed out for excess reserves management in Venezuela.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Vera & Luis Zambrano Sequín, 2005. "El nivel adecuado de reservas internacionales: notas para el caso venezolano," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 20(1), pages 63-94, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ila:anaeco:v:20:y:2005:i:1:p:63-94
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1996. "Testing for the 'Existence of a Long-run Relationship'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9622, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Sebastian Edwards, 1981. "A Note on the Demand for International REserves by Less Developed Countries," UCLA Economics Working Papers 222, UCLA Department of Economics.
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    5. Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2003. "Too Much of a Good Thing? The Adequacy of International Reserves in the Aftermath of Crises," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(6), pages 873-891, June.
    6. Barry Eichengreen and Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1996. "On the SDR: Reserve Currencies and the Future of the International Monetary System," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-068, University of California at Berkeley.
    7. Peter B. Clark, 1970. "Demand for International Reserves: A Cross-Country Analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 3(4), pages 577-594, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Reserve Holdings; Excess Reserves; Venezuela; Econometric Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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