IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ifs/fistud/v19y1998i1p39-48.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

SYMPOSIUM on forecasting the state of the public finances

Author

Listed:
  • Mark H. Robson

Abstract

The level of public borrowing plays a central role in UK government policymaking, especially in the run-up to each Budget. Accurate forecasts of the overall fiscal stance are crucial in assessing the general health of the economy, the direction of tax policy and the volume of public services that can be supplied. But these forecasts have a relatively poor record in the UK in recent years. The government’s last Financial Statement and Budget Report noted that ‘The budget deficit is the difference between two large aggregates of spending and receipts and forecasts of it are inevitably subject to a wide margin of error. Over the past five years the average absolute errors have been around 1 per cent of GDP, or plus or minus £8 billion in today’s prices’.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark H. Robson, 1998. "SYMPOSIUM on forecasting the state of the public finances," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 39-48, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:19:y:1998:i:1:p:39-48
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ifs.org.uk/fs/articles/fsrobson.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dorothée Allain-Dupré & Claudia Hulbert & Margaux Vincent, 2017. "Subnational Infrastructure Investment in OECD Countries: Trends and Key Governance Levers," OECD Regional Development Working Papers 2017/05, OECD Publishing.
    2. Yoshiyasu Ono, 2011. "The Keynesian Multiplier Effect Reconsidered," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 787-794, June.
    3. Andres, Javier & Domenech, Rafael & Fatas, Antonio, 2008. "The stabilizing role of government size," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-593, February.
    4. Milan Deskar-Skrbic & Darjan Milutinovic, 2021. "Design of fiscal consolidation packages and model-based fiscal multipliers in Croatia," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 45(1), pages 1-61.
    5. Alex Segura-Ubiergo & Alejandro Simone & Sanjeev Gupta & Qiang Cui, 2010. "New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 52(1), pages 18-37, March.
    6. Ms. Francesca Castellani & Mr. Xavier Debrun, 2001. "Central Bank Independence and the Design of Fiscal Institutions," IMF Working Papers 2001/205, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Daniele Tavani & Luca Zamparelli, 2017. "Government spending composition, aggregate demand, growth, and distribution," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 239-258, April.
    8. Sanjeev Gupta & Benedict Clements & Emanuele Baldacci & Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2004. "The persistence of fiscal adjustments in developing countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 209-212.
    9. David Lodge & Marta Rodriguez-Vives, 2013. "How long can austerity persist? The factors that sustain fiscal consolidations," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 2(1), pages 5-24, June.
    10. Erceg, Christopher J. & Lindé, Jesper, 2013. "Fiscal consolidation in a currency union: Spending cuts vs. tax hikes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 422-445.
    11. World Bank, 2005. "Dominica : OECS Fiscal Issues, Policies to Achieve Fiscal Sustainability and Improve Efficiency and Equity of Public Expenditures," World Bank Publications - Reports 8681, The World Bank Group.
    12. Maxime MENUET & Alexandru MINEA & Patrick VILLIEU, 2017. "Public Debt, Endogenous Growth Cycles and Indeterminacy," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2467, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    13. Christopher J. Erceg & Jesper Lindé, 2011. "Asymmetric Shocks in a Currency Union with Monetary and Fiscal Handcuffs," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 95-136.
    14. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Elisa Borghi & Alessandro Missale, 2011. "Public Investment under Fiscal Constraints," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 11-42, March.
    15. Asztalos, Viktor, 2015. "Politikai változások a költségvetési kiigazítások tükrében [Political changes in the light of fiscal adjustments]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1196-1210.
    16. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    17. Hüseyin ŞEN & Ayşe KAYA, 2017. "Mali Konsolidasyon Büyüme ve İstihdam için Bir Çıpa mı, Mali Tuzak mı? Teorik ve Ampirik Literatür Temelli Bir Analiz," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25(34).
    18. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/9909 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Lahura, Erick & Castillo, Giovana, 2018. "El efecto de cambios tributarios sobre la actividad económica en Perú: Una aplicación del enfoque narrativo," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 36, pages 31-53.
    20. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2018. "Fiscal consolidations and heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 173-205.
    21. Bertocco Giancarlo & Fanelli Luca & Paruolo Paolo, 2002. "On the determinants of inflation in Italy: evidence of cost-push effects before the European Monetary Union," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0223, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:19:y:1998:i:1:p:39-48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emma Hyman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifsssuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.