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The global multisector/multicountry 3-E model GINFORS. A description of the model and a baseline forecast for global energy demand and CO 2 emissions

Author

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  • Christian Lutz
  • Bernd Meyer
  • Marc Ingo Wolter

Abstract

The paper presents the multisector/multicountry energy–economic–environment model GINFORS, which has already been used as the simulation engine in the project MOSUS of the 5th EU framework programme. The detailed description of the model features the application ability for energy forecasts and simulations. An overview of the system is given, and the structures of the multisector international trade model are depicted as well as those of the Input–Output Models (IOMs), the Macro-Models (MMs) and the energy models of the several countries. Further, the paper defines a baseline scenario with a high constant real oil price for the period 2006-2020 and derives a global forecast for energy demand, CO2 emissions and economic development with some sector and country details.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Lutz & Bernd Meyer & Marc Ingo Wolter, 2010. "The global multisector/multicountry 3-E model GINFORS. A description of the model and a baseline forecast for global energy demand and CO 2 emissions," International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(1/2), pages 25-45.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijgenv:v:10:y:2010:i:1/2:p:25-45
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lutz, Christian & Lehr, Ulrike & Wiebe, Kirsten S., 2012. "Economic effects of peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 829-834.
    2. Gissela Landa Rivera & Paul Malliet & Aurélien Saussay & Frédéric Reynès, 2018. "The State of Applied Environmental Macroeconomics," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 133-149.
    3. Dr. Kirsten S. Wiebe & Dr. Christian Lutz, 2013. "The Renewable Power Generation Module (RPGM) – An extension to the GWS model family to endogenize technological change in the renewable power generation sector," GWS Discussion Paper Series 13-7, GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research.
    4. Bulavskaya, Tatyana & Reynès, Frédéric, 2018. "Job creation and economic impact of renewable energy in the Netherlands," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 528-538.
    5. Zoi Vrontisi & Ioannis Charalampidis & Ulrike Lehr & Mark Meyer & Leonidas Paroussos & Christian Lutz & Yen E. Lam-González & Anastasia Arabadzhyan & Matías M. González & Carmelo J. León, 2022. "Macroeconomic impacts of climate change on the Blue Economy sectors of southern European islands," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-21, February.
    6. Claire Alestra & Gilbert Cette & Valérie Chouard & Rémy Lecat, 2020. "Long-term growth impact of climate change and policies: the Advanced Climate Change Long-term (ACCL) scenario building model," AMSE Working Papers 2007, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    7. Johannes Reinhard Többen & Martin Distelkamp & Britta Stöver & Saskia Reuschel & Lara Ahmann & Christian Lutz, 2022. "Global Land Use Impacts of Bioeconomy: An Econometric Input–Output Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-24, February.
    8. Kirsten S. Wiebe, 2016. "The impact of renewable energy diffusion on European consumption-based emissions," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 133-150, June.
    9. Meyer, Bernd & Ahlert, Gerd, 2019. "Imperfect Markets and the Properties of Macro-economic-environmental Models as Tools for Policy Evaluation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 80-87.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/11505qn4ak95irt0cafaeim81j is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Scrieciu, S. Şerban & Barker, Terry & Ackerman, Frank, 2013. "Pushing the boundaries of climate economics: critical issues to consider in climate policy analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 155-165.
    12. Rossella Bardazzi & Leonardo Ghezzi, 2018. "A Multi-Scale System of Macroeconometric Models: the Inforum Approach," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(6), pages 598-606, November.
    13. Kirsten Svenja Wiebe & Eivind Lekve Bjelle & Johannes Többen & Richard Wood, 2018. "Implementing exogenous scenarios in a global MRIO model for the estimation of future environmental footprints," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, December.
    14. Tatyana Bulavskaya & Frédéric Reynés, 2018. "Job creation and economic impact of renewable energy in Netherlands," Post-Print hal-03458307, HAL.
    15. Anke Mönnig, 2016. "The European Monetary Union break-up: an economic experiment on the return of the deutsche mark," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 497-517, October.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3qbhmo3oe19bo8u5dc21qfic27 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Tatyana Bulavskaya & Frédéric Reynés, 2018. "Job creation and economic impact of renewable energy in Netherlands," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03458307, HAL.
    18. Wiebe, Kirsten S. & Lutz, Christian, 2016. "Endogenous technological change and the policy mix in renewable power generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 739-751.
    19. Bettina Bahn-Walkowiak & Sören Steger, 2015. "Resource Targets in Europe and Worldwide: An Overview," Resources, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-24, August.
    20. Nieto, Jaime & Pollitt, Hector & Brockway, Paul E. & Clements, Lucy & Sakai, Marco & Barrett, John, 2021. "Socio-macroeconomic impacts of implementing different post-Brexit UK energy reduction targets to 2030," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    21. Kirsten Svenja Wiebe & Christian Lutz, 2012. "Consumer responsibilities of carbon emissions in a post-Kyoto regime until 2020," EcoMod2012 3798, EcoMod.

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