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Herd Behavior and Financial Crashes: An Interacting Particle System Approach

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  • Vincenzo Crescimanna
  • Luca Di Persio

Abstract

We provide an approach based on a modification of the Ising model to describe the dynamics of stock markets. Our model incorporates three different factors: imitation, the impact of external news, and private information; moreover, it is characterized by coupling coefficients, static in time, but not identical for each agent. By analogy with physical models, we consider the temperature parameter of the system, assuming that it evolves with memory of the past, hence considering how former news influences realized market returns. We show that a standard Ising potential assumption is not sufficient to reproduce the stylized facts characterizing financial markets; this is because it assigns low probabilities to rare events. Hence, we study a variation of the previous setting providing, also by concrete computations, new insights and improvements.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincenzo Crescimanna & Luca Di Persio, 2016. "Herd Behavior and Financial Crashes: An Interacting Particle System Approach," Journal of Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2016, pages 1-7, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jjmath:7510567
    DOI: 10.1155/2016/7510567
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    Cited by:

    1. Yue Chen & Xiaojian Niu & Yan Zhang, 2019. "Exploring Contrarian Degree in the Trading Behavior of China's Stock Market," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-12, April.
    2. Christoph J. Borner & Ingo Hoffmann & John H. Stiebel, 2023. "On the Connection between Temperature and Volatility in Ideal Agent Systems," Papers 2303.15164, arXiv.org.
    3. Quanbo Zha & Gang Kou & Hengjie Zhang & Haiming Liang & Xia Chen & Cong-Cong Li & Yucheng Dong, 2020. "Opinion dynamics in finance and business: a literature review and research opportunities," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, December.
    4. Christoph J. Borner & Ingo Hoffmann & John H. Stiebel, 2024. "A closer look at the chemical potential of an ideal agent system," Papers 2401.09233, arXiv.org.
    5. Zitis, Pavlos I. & Contoyiannis, Yiannis & Potirakis, Stelios M., 2022. "Critical dynamics related to a recent Bitcoin crash," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

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