IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gmf/journl/y2007i26p15-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Confidence and Unemployment in the European Union: A lesson from the 2004 enlargement

Author

Listed:
  • António Caleiro

    (Departamento de Economia, Universidade de Évora)

Abstract

We use data for the monthly unemployment rate and consumer confidence indicator in the European Union to study whether there is a relationship between unemployment and confidence. Our estimation method is based on a fuzzy logic methodology with a Gaussian membership function. We find a stronger relationship between unemployment and confidence than it is apparent. We show in an ex-post prediction study that this relationship did not change, in a significant way, after the 2004 enlargement of the European Union. This fact constitutes a lesson for the post-2007 enlargement period. The link between unemployment and confidence has important policy implications given its relevance, in particular for the (latest call for a new start of the) Lisbon Strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • António Caleiro, 2007. "Confidence and Unemployment in the European Union: A lesson from the 2004 enlargement," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 26, pages 15-26, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:gmf:journl:y:2007:i:26:p:15-26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://notas-economicas.fe.uc.pt/texts/ne026n0186.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matsusaka, John G & Sbordone, Argia M, 1995. "Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(2), pages 296-318, April.
    2. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    3. Annabelle Mourougane & Moreno Roma, 2003. "Can confidence indicators be useful to predict short term real GDP growth?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 519-522.
    4. James E. West & Bruce Linster, 2003. "The Evolution of Fuzzy Rules as Strategies in Two-Player Games," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 705-717, January.
    5. Antonio Caleiro, 2006. "How is confidence related to unemployment in Portugal?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(13), pages 887-890.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arindam Mandal & Joseph McCollum, 2013. "Consumer Confidence and the Unemployment Rate in New York State: A Panel Study," New York Economic Review, New York State Economics Association (NYSEA), pages 3-19.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gmf:journl:y:2007:i:26:p:15-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ana Seiça). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/fecucpt.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.