Confidence and Unemployment in the European Union: A lesson from the 2004 enlargement
We use data for the monthly unemployment rate and consumer confidence indicator in the European Union to study whether there is a relationship between unemployment and confidence. Our estimation method is based on a fuzzy logic methodology with a Gaussian membership function. We find a stronger relationship between unemployment and confidence than it is apparent. We show in an ex-post prediction study that this relationship did not change, in a significant way, after the 2004 enlargement of the European Union. This fact constitutes a lesson for the post-2007 enlargement period. The link between unemployment and confidence has important policy implications given its relevance, in particular for the (latest call for a new start of the) Lisbon Strategy.
Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): 26 (December)
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- Matsusaka, John G & Sbordone, Argia M, 1995. "Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(2), pages 296-318, April.
- Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
- Annabelle Mourougane & Moreno Roma, 2003.
"Can confidence indicators be useful to predict short term real GDP growth?,"
Applied Economics Letters,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 519-522.
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- James E. West & Bruce Linster, 2003. "The Evolution of Fuzzy Rules as Strategies in Two-Player Games," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 705-717, January.
- Antonio Caleiro, 2006. "How is confidence related to unemployment in Portugal?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(13), pages 887-890.
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