IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v9y2017i11p1990-d117115.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probabilistic Price Forecasting for Day-Ahead and Intraday Markets: Beyond the Statistical Model

Author

Listed:
  • José R. Andrade

    (INESC Technology and Science (INESC TEC), Campus da FEUP, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal)

  • Jorge Filipe

    (INESC Technology and Science (INESC TEC), Campus da FEUP, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal
    Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal)

  • Marisa Reis

    (INESC Technology and Science (INESC TEC), Campus da FEUP, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal
    Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal)

  • Ricardo J. Bessa

    (INESC Technology and Science (INESC TEC), Campus da FEUP, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal)

Abstract

Forecasting the hourly spot price of day-ahead and intraday markets is particularly challenging in electric power systems characterized by high installed capacity of renewable energy technologies. In particular, periods with low and high price levels are difficult to predict due to a limited number of representative cases in the historical dataset, which leads to forecast bias problems and wide forecast intervals. Moreover, these markets also require the inclusion of multiple explanatory variables, which increases the complexity of the model without guaranteeing a forecasting skill improvement. This paper explores information from daily futures contract trading and forecast of the daily average spot price to correct point and probabilistic forecasting bias. It also shows that an adequate choice of explanatory variables and use of simple models like linear quantile regression can lead to highly accurate spot price point and probabilistic forecasts. In terms of point forecast, the mean absolute error was 3.03 €/MWh for day-ahead market and a maximum value of 2.53 €/MWh was obtained for intraday session 6. The probabilistic forecast results show sharp forecast intervals and deviations from perfect calibration below 7% for all market sessions.

Suggested Citation

  • José R. Andrade & Jorge Filipe & Marisa Reis & Ricardo J. Bessa, 2017. "Probabilistic Price Forecasting for Day-Ahead and Intraday Markets: Beyond the Statistical Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-29, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:11:p:1990-:d:117115
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/11/1990/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/11/1990/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    2. Juan M. Morales & Antonio J. Conejo & Henrik Madsen & Pierre Pinson & Marco Zugno, 2014. "Integrating Renewables in Electricity Markets," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, edition 127, number 978-1-4614-9411-9, September.
    3. Antonio Bello & Javier Reneses & Antonio Muñoz, 2016. "Medium-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Extremely Low Prices in Electricity Markets: Application to the Spanish Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-27, March.
    4. Antonio Bello & Derek Bunn & Javier Reneses & Antonio Muñoz, 2016. "Parametric Density Recalibration of a Fundamental Market Model to Forecast Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-15, November.
    5. Zugno, Marco & Morales, Juan Miguel & Pinson, Pierre & Madsen, Henrik, 2013. "A bilevel model for electricity retailers' participation in a demand response market environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 182-197.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    2. Rodrigo A. de Marcos & Antonio Bello & Javier Reneses, 2019. "Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting with a Composite Fundamental-Econometric Hybrid Methodology," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-15, March.
    3. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick, 2018. "Probabilistic mid- and long-term electricity price forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 251-266.
    4. Simon Pezzutto & Gianluca Grilli & Stefano Zambotti & Stefan Dunjic, 2018. "Forecasting Electricity Market Price for End Users in EU28 until 2020—Main Factors of Influence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, June.
    5. Javier Contreras, 2017. "Forecasting Models of Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-2, January.
    6. Rodrigo A. de Marcos & Derek W. Bunn & Antonio Bello & Javier Reneses, 2020. "Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting with Recurrent Regimes and Structural Breaks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-14, October.
    7. Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    8. Gabrielli, Paolo & Wüthrich, Moritz & Blume, Steffen & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2022. "Data-driven modeling for long-term electricity price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
    9. Derek W. Bunn & Angelica Gianfreda & Stefan Kermer, 2018. "A Trading-Based Evaluation of Density Forecasts in a Real-Time Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-13, October.
    10. Andrés M. Alonso & Guadalupe Bastos & Carolina García-Martos, 2016. "Electricity Price Forecasting by Averaging Dynamic Factor Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-21, July.
    11. Chuntian Cheng & Bin Luo & Shumin Miao & Xinyu Wu, 2016. "Mid-Term Electricity Market Clearing Price Forecasting with Sparse Data: A Case in Newly-Reformed Yunnan Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-22, October.
    12. Yiyuan Chen & Yufeng Wang & Jianhua Ma & Qun Jin, 2019. "BRIM: An Accurate Electricity Spot Price Prediction Scheme-Based Bidirectional Recurrent Neural Network and Integrated Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-18, June.
    13. Sheybanivaziri, Samaneh & Le Dréau, Jérôme & Kazmi, Hussain, 2024. "Forecasting price spikes in day-ahead electricity markets: techniques, challenges, and the road ahead," Discussion Papers 2024/1, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    14. Jethro Browell, 2018. "Risk Constrained Trading Strategies for Stochastic Generation with a Single-Price Balancing Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-17, May.
    15. Alonso Fernández, Andrés Modesto & Bastos, Guadalupe & García-Martos, Carolina, 2017. "Electricity prices forecasting by averaging dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24028, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    16. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2020. "Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with NARX networks: Combine point or probabilistic forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 466-479.
    17. Florian Ziel & Rick Steinert, 2017. "Probabilistic Mid- and Long-Term Electricity Price Forecasting," Papers 1703.10806, arXiv.org, revised May 2018.
    18. Nowotarski, Jakub & Liu, Bidong & Weron, Rafał & Hong, Tao, 2016. "Improving short term load forecast accuracy via combining sister forecasts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 40-49.
    19. Štefan Bojnec & Alan Križaj, 2021. "Electricity Markets during the Liberalization: The Case of a European Union Country," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-21, July.
    20. Claudio Monteiro & Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado & L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez & Pedro Conde, 2016. "Short-Term Price Forecasting Models Based on Artificial Neural Networks for Intraday Sessions in the Iberian Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-24, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:11:p:1990-:d:117115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.