The Development of Economic–Social–Ecological Complex Systems in the Yellow River Basin, China

The economic, social and ecological elements in the region constitute a complex ecosystem. The development trend, internal coordination and interactive effects of the economic–social–ecological (ESE) system have consistently constituted pivotal scientific propositions in the context of the social development process. The Yellow River Basin holds strategic importance, acting as both an ecological barrier and a center for economic development within China. Based on these considerations, this study focuses on the Yellow River Basin and innovatively establishes a theoretical framework and measurement model for the development of the ESE system. Quantitative methods, including the coupled coordination model and augmented regression tree model, are employed to evaluate the development, coordination, spatial patterns and influencing factors of the ESE system in the study area. The findings reveal that the economic and social subsystems are rapidly developing. Over the study period, the focus of ESE system development shifted eastward. Furthermore, there were noticeable disparities in the factors influencing coordinated ESE system development across the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin. Thus, sustainable development policies for the region must be tailored to local conditions. This study also offers insights into the potential development paths for the Yellow River Basin and other river basins in China, contributing practical value to the promotion of sustainable development and the construction of an ESE system that reflects the unique characteristics of the Yellow River Basin.