IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i19p8896-d1766029.html

The Impact of the Economic Crisis and the Pandemic on the Portuguese Tourism Industry: An Econometric Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Teresa Ferreira

    (Lisbon Accounting and Business School, Lisbon Polytechnic Institute, Av. Miguel Bombarda, 20, 1069-035 Lisboa, Portugal)

  • Sandra Custódio

    (Lisbon Accounting and Business School, Lisbon Polytechnic Institute, Av. Miguel Bombarda, 20, 1069-035 Lisboa, Portugal
    CEFAGE (Univ. Évora—ISCAL) Research Center, Av. Miguel Bombarda, 20, 1069-035 Lisboa, Portugal)

  • Manuel do Carmo

    (Military Academy/CINAMIL, Av. Conde Castro Guimarães, 2720-113 Amadora, Portugal
    IADE-FDTC|Universidade Europeia, Oriente Green Campus, Rua Adão Manuel Ramos Barata, 1885-100 Lisboa, Portugal
    CIMA/IIFA-University of Évora, Rua Romão Ramalho, 59, 7000-671 Évora, Portugal)

Abstract

Tourism is a key driver of Portugal’s economy, with the WTTC projecting it to contribute EUR 56.4 billion (21.1% of GDP) by 2033. However, the sector has proven highly vulnerable to external shocks, such as the 2008 financial crisis, Brexit, and the pandemic, which have disrupted demand patterns and exposed structural weaknesses. It is essential to understand these impacts at a regional level in order to design more resilient and sustainable tourism strategies. This study examines how major crises have shaped tourism in Portugal’s NUTS II regions, focusing particularly on overnight stays, and assesses the implications for sustainable development and regional policy. Quarterly data from the National Statistics Institute (INE) covering 2004/2024 are used. We apply ARIMA and SARIMA models to account for seasonality and autocorrelation, and evaluate the accuracy of our forecasts using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Theil’s U statistics. Structural breaks are considered to capture the effects of crises. The findings show that crises have significantly altered tourism patterns, with a shift towards less crowded and more remote destinations. This reflects vulnerabilities and opportunities for sustainability-oriented tourism. The study offers policymakers actionable guidance by aligning its results with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to economic resilience (SDG 8), innovation and infrastructure (SDG 9), and partnerships for sustainable governance (SDG 17). This work is original in combining long-term regional data with robust forecasting techniques to provide innovative insights for scientific research and practical policy planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Teresa Ferreira & Sandra Custódio & Manuel do Carmo, 2025. "The Impact of the Economic Crisis and the Pandemic on the Portuguese Tourism Industry: An Econometric Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-26, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:19:p:8896-:d:1766029
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/19/8896/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/19/8896/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. United Nations UN, 2015. "Transforming our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development," Working Papers id:7559, eSocialSciences.
    2. Pan, Mengqiang & Liao, Zhixue & Wang, Zhouyiying & Ren, Chi & Xing, Zhibin & Li, Wenyong, 2025. "Tourism forecasting: A dynamic spatiotemporal model," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Anupam Dutta & Tapas Mishra & Gazi Salah Uddin & Yang Yang, 2021. "Brexit uncertainty and volatility persistence in tourism demand," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(16), pages 2225-2232, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paulina Schiappacasse & Bernhard Müller & Le Thuy Linh, 2019. "Towards Responsible Aggregate Mining in Vietnam," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, August.
    2. Pina Puntillo, 2023. "Circular economy business models: Towards achieving sustainable development goals in the waste management sector—Empirical evidence and theoretical implications," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(2), pages 941-954, March.
    3. R. Ebrahimi & S. Choobchian & H. Farhadian & I. Goli & E. Farmandeh & H. Azadi, 2022. "Investigating the effect of vocational education and training on rural women’s empowerment," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Lampros Lamprinidis, 2025. "Socially Responsible Public Procurement and the Social Economy: European and Global Institutional Approaches," Journal of Public Policy and Administration, IPRJB, vol. 10(1), pages 46-62.
    5. Bárbara Galleli & Elder Semprebon & Joyce Aparecida Ramos dos Santos & Noah Emanuel Brito Teles & Mateus Santos de Freitas-Martins & Raquel Teodoro da Silva Onevetch, 2021. "Institutional Pressures, Sustainable Development Goals and COVID-19: How Are Organisations Engaging?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-21, November.
    6. Anna Napiórkowska & Piotr Zaborek & Marzanna Katarzyna Witek-Hajduk & Anna Grudecka, 2025. "Individual Cultural Values and Charitable Crowdfunding: Driving Social Sustainability Through Consumer Engagement," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-26, June.
    7. Sagarika Dey & Priyanka Devi, 2019. "Impact of TVET on Labour Market Outcomes and Women’s Empowerment in Rural Areas: A Case Study from Cachar District, Assam," Indian Journal of Human Development, , vol. 13(3), pages 357-371, December.
    8. Maria Sassi, 2020. "A SEM Approach to the Direct and Indirect Links between WaSH Services and Access to Food in Countries in Protracted Crises: The Case of Western Bahr-el-Ghazal State, South Sudan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-13, November.
    9. Olga Stepanova & Magdalena Romanov, 2021. "Urban Planning as a Strategy to Implement Social Sustainability Policy Goals? The Case of Temporary Housing for Immigrants in Gothenburg, Sweden," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-17, February.
    10. Michel, Hanno, 2020. "From local to global: The role of knowledge, transfer, and capacity building for successful energy transitions," Discussion Papers, Research Group Digital Mobility and Social Differentiation SP III 2020-603, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    11. Hervé Corvellec & Johan Hultman & Anne Jerneck & Susanne Arvidsson & Johan Ekroos & Niklas Wahlberg & Timothy W. Luke, 2021. "Resourcification: A non‐essentialist theory of resources for sustainable development," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 1249-1256, November.
    12. Wilson Charles Wilson & Maja Slingerland & Frederick P. Baijukya & Hannah Zanten & Simon Oosting & Ken E. Giller, 2021. "Integrating the soybean-maize-chicken value chains to attain nutritious diets in Tanzania," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(6), pages 1595-1612, December.
    13. Jones, Lindsey & d'Errico, Marco, 2019. "Whose resilience matters? Like-for-like comparison of objective and subjective evaluations of resilience," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Victor Tomaz de Oliveira & Denilson Teixeira & Antonio Boggia & Lucia Rocchi, 2025. "Performance Towards Sustainability: A Regional Assessment Supported by the Geographic Information Systems," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 8855-8869, December.
    15. Bin Xue & Bingsheng Liu & Tao Liang & Dong Zhao & Tao Wang & Xingbin Chen, 2022. "A heterogeneous decision criteria system evaluating sustainable infrastructure development: From the lens of multidisciplinary stakeholder engagement," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 556-579, August.
    16. Sudheesh Ramapurath Chemmencheri, 2016. "Social Protection as a Human Right in South Asia," Indian Journal of Human Development, , vol. 10(2), pages 236-252, August.
    17. Ingrid Boas & Frank Biermann & Norichika Kanie, 2016. "Cross-sectoral strategies in global sustainability governance: towards a nexus approach," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 449-464, June.
    18. Joyeeta Gupta & Louis Lebel, 0. "Access and allocation in earth system governance: lessons learnt in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-18.
    19. Guo, Jiaqi & Wang, Qiang & Li, Rongrong, 2024. "Can official development assistance promote renewable energy in sub-Saharan Africa countries? A matter of institutional transparency of recipient countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    20. Kinyondo, Abel Alfred & Ntegwa, Magashi Joseph & Masawe, Cresencia Apolinary, . "Socioeconomic Inequality in Maternal Healthcare Services: The Case of Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(01).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:19:p:8896-:d:1766029. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.