Towards a Circular Economy in Urban Households: Spatial Challenges of Waste Collection Under Residential Growth in Warsaw

The present article examines the relationship between the changing residential net floor area of residential units in Warsaw, driven by ongoing urban growth, and the spatial requirements for household municipal waste collection. Analyzing 20 years from 2003 to 2023 across 18 districts of Warsaw, this article examines how the interplay between building morphology, demographic structure, and municipal waste generation influences the spatial and infrastructural requirements for separate collection. The study panel regression and volume simulations were applied to assess these dynamics. The results demonstrate that the number of residents per unit is the strongest predictor of waste generation, while the effect of floor area is less robust but still relevant. Waste generation per unit increased by 20% during the study period, accompanied by a sevenfold rise in plastics and a nearly eightyfold increase in biowaste, which together impose growing spatial burdens on households and collection infrastructure. The study emphasizes the significance of integrating waste infrastructure planning with housing design, considering the urban areas’ heterogeneous and evolving nature (identified at the district level). In the transition to a circular economy, the results highlight the need for locally sensitive strategies that link everyday household waste management with systemic urban sustainability goals.