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Understanding the Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drivers of Carbon Stock in Central-Southern China’s Hilly Regions Through Land Use Change and Scenario Simulation

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  • Yali Zhang

    (College of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
    Hunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Areas Landscape Resources, Changsha 410004, China
    Urban and Rural Research Institute of Landscape Ecology, Yuelushan Laboratory Carbon Sinks Forests Variety Innovation Center, Changsha 410004, China)

  • Jia Tang

    (College of Landscape Architecture and Art, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China
    Nanchang Key Laboratory of Urban and Rural Landscape Architecture Research, Nanchang 330045, China)

  • Xijun Hu

    (College of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
    Hunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Areas Landscape Resources, Changsha 410004, China
    Urban and Rural Research Institute of Landscape Ecology, Yuelushan Laboratory Carbon Sinks Forests Variety Innovation Center, Changsha 410004, China)

  • Cunyou Chen

    (College of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
    Hunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Areas Landscape Resources, Changsha 410004, China
    Urban and Rural Research Institute of Landscape Ecology, Yuelushan Laboratory Carbon Sinks Forests Variety Innovation Center, Changsha 410004, China)

  • Ziwei Luo

    (College of Landscape Architecture and Arts, Northwest Agriculture & Forestry University, Xianyang 712100, China)

  • Qian Li

    (College of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
    Hunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Areas Landscape Resources, Changsha 410004, China
    Urban and Rural Research Institute of Landscape Ecology, Yuelushan Laboratory Carbon Sinks Forests Variety Innovation Center, Changsha 410004, China)

  • Qizhen Li

    (College of Landscape Architecture, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
    Hunan Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Areas Landscape Resources, Changsha 410004, China
    Urban and Rural Research Institute of Landscape Ecology, Yuelushan Laboratory Carbon Sinks Forests Variety Innovation Center, Changsha 410004, China)

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes play a crucial role in regional carbon dynamics and climate regulation. This study assesses the impact of LULC changes on carbon stocks in Hunan Province, China, from 2000 to 2035 using a MOP-PLUS–InVEST–OPGD integrated modeling framework. Results show that carbon stock declined by 45.96 million tons from 2000 to 2020 due to rapid urban expansion and conversion of forest and grassland to construction land. Scenario simulations reveal that by 2035, carbon stock will increase by 4.82% under the ecological protection scenario (EP) but decrease by 3.26% under the natural trend scenario (NT). Economic development scenario (ED) and sustainable development scenario (SD) produce intermediate outcomes. Spatially, high-carbon regions are concentrated in high-altitude forested areas, while urbanized lowlands exhibit the lowest carbon density. The optimal parameters-based geographical detector (OPGD) model identifies land use intensity, elevation, and net primary productivity as the dominant drivers of carbon stock variation, with significant interactions between natural and socioeconomic factors. These findings underscore the need for integrated land-use planning and ecological conservation policies that align with carbon neutrality goals. This study provides a replicable spatial framework and policy-oriented insights for managing carbon stocks in rapidly developing regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Yali Zhang & Jia Tang & Xijun Hu & Cunyou Chen & Ziwei Luo & Qian Li & Qizhen Li, 2025. "Understanding the Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drivers of Carbon Stock in Central-Southern China’s Hilly Regions Through Land Use Change and Scenario Simulation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-38, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:12:p:5578-:d:1681136
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jian Ni, 2013. "Carbon storage in Chinese terrestrial ecosystems: approaching a more accurate estimate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 905-917, August.
    2. Yonghua Li & Song Yao & Hezhou Jiang & Huarong Wang & Qinchuan Ran & Xinyun Gao & Xinyi Ding & Dandong Ge, 2022. "Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage: An Integrated Framework Based on the MOP–PLUS–InVEST Model and an Applied Case Study in Hangzhou, East China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, December.
    3. Jingyi Zhang & Hanqi Ding & Jingkun Xu & Bohong Zheng, 2024. "A Simulation-Based Prediction of Land Use Change Impacts on Carbon Storage from a Regional Imbalance Perspective: A Case Study of Hunan Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, October.
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