Optimal Multi-Period Manufacturing–Remanufacturing–Transport Planning in Carbon Conscious Supply Chain: An Approach Based on Prediction and Optimization

This paper presents a joint optimization framework for multi-period planning in a Manufacturing–Remanufacturing–Transport Supply Chain (MRTSC), focusing on carbon emission reduction and economic efficiency. A novel Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model is developed to coordinate procurement, production, remanufacturing, transportation, and returns under environmental constraints, aligned with carbon tax policies and the Paris Agreement. To address uncertainty in future demand and the number of returned used products (NRUP), a two-stage approach combining forecasting and optimization is applied. Among several predictive methods evaluated, a hybrid SARIMA/VAR model is selected for its accuracy. The MILP model, implemented in CPLEX, generates optimal decisions based on these forecasts. A case study demonstrates notable improvements in cost efficiency and emission reduction over traditional approaches. The results show that the proposed model consistently maintained strong service levels through flexible planning and responsive transport scheduling, minimizing both unmet demand and inventory excesses throughout the planning horizon. Additionally, the findings indicate that carbon taxation caused a sharp drop in profit with only limited emission reductions, highlighting the need for parallel support for cleaner technologies and more integrated sustainability strategies. The analysis further reveals a clear trade-off between emission reduction and operational performance, as stricter carbon limits lead to lower profitability and service levels despite environmental gains.