The Probability of Ship Collision during the Fully Submerged Towing Process of Floating Offshore Wind Turbines

As global warming intensifies, the development of offshore wind farms is swiftly progressing, especially deep-water Floating Offshore Wind Turbines (FOWTs) capable of energy capture in deep-sea regions, which have emerged as a focal point of both academic and industrial interest. Although numerous researchers have conducted comprehensive and multifaceted studies on various components of wind turbines, less attention has been paid to the operational stage responses of FOWTs to wind, waves, and currents and the reliability of their structural components. This study primarily employs a theoretical analysis to establish mathematical models under a series of reasonable assumptions, examining the possibility of collisions between FOWT transport fleets and other vessels in the passage area during the towing process. Using the model, this paper takes the Wanning Floating Offshore Wind Farm (FOWF) project, which is scheduled to be deployed in the South China Sea, as its research object and calculates the probability of collisions between FOWTs and other vessels in three months from the pier near Wanning, Hainan, to a predetermined position 22 km away. The findings of the analysis indicate that the mathematical model developed in this study integrates the quantities and velocities of navigational vessels within the target maritime area as well as the speeds, routes, and schedules of the FOWT transport fleet. By employing statistical techniques and geometric calculations, the model can determine the frequency of collisions between various types of vessels and the FOWT transport fleet during the transportation period. This has substantial relevance for future risk assessments and disaster prevention and mitigation measures in the context of FOWT transportation.