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A Study on the Impact of External Shocks on the Resilience of China’s Grain Supply Chain

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  • Tao Zheng

    (School of Economics and Management, Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao 066004, China
    The Regional Economic Development Research Center, Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao 066004, China)

  • Guiqian Zhao

    (School of Economics and Management, Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao 066004, China)

  • Siwei Chu

    (School of Economics and Management, Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao 066004, China)

Abstract

Grain supply is the lifeblood of a country, and the stability of the supply chain is a crucial prerequisite for ensuring national grain security. This paper draws on the definition of resilience in physics and economics. It takes supply chain fracture resilience, impact resilience, and synergy resilience as the secondary indicators. It constructs a comprehensive evaluation indicator system of the grain supply chain resilience, measures the resilience indicator of China’s grain supply chain from 1996 to 2021, and analyzes the role of supply, cost, exchange rate, and other external shocks in influencing the resilience of China’s grain supply chain on this basis. The study found that the overall level of China’s total grain supply chain resilience has been growing year by year and can be divided into three stages: low-level stabilization stage, continuous growth stage, and high-level stabilization stage. Grain supply chain fracture resilience has been growing steadily, grain supply chain impact resilience fluctuation is more obvious, and grain supply chain synergy resilience has been changing more gently. In the inquiry of the impact of external shocks on the resilience of China’s grain supply chain, it was found that world grain exports and the RMB exchange rate have a significant positive impact on China’s grain supply chain resilience level, while the international oil price has a significant negative impact. Based on this, the paper puts forward suggestions for ensuring stable production and supply in the grain market, improving the structure of foreign trade in grain, and actively coping with international commodity price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Tao Zheng & Guiqian Zhao & Siwei Chu, 2024. "A Study on the Impact of External Shocks on the Resilience of China’s Grain Supply Chain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-17, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:3:p:956-:d:1324517
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ebenezer Olamide & Andrew Maredza & Kanayo Ogujiuba, 2022. "Monetary Policy, External Shocks and Economic Growth Dynamics in East Africa: An S-VAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Friday Osemenshan Anetor, 2020. "Foreign Capital Inflows, Financial Development and Growth In Nigeria: A Structural VAR Approach," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 54(3), pages 69-86, July-Sept.
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    4. Sudhanshu Joshi & Manu Sharma & Banu Y. Ekren & Yigit Kazancoglu & Sunil Luthra & Mukesh Prasad, 2023. "Assessing Supply Chain Innovations for Building Resilient Food Supply Chains: An Emerging Economy Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-21, March.
    5. Peter A.G. Bergeijk & Steven Brakman & Charles Marrewijk, 2017. "Heterogeneous economic resilience and the great recession's world trade collapse," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(1), pages 3-12, March.
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    2. Qingru Sun & Jinfeng Miao & Yaojun Shan & Shukun Hu & Mingting Ding & Han Zhang, 2025. "Revisiting the price transmission from international commodity to Chinese agricultural products based on an industry chain perspective," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Deyin Zhang & Daiyin Jiang & Bing He, 2025. "Empowering Agricultural Economic Resilience with Smart Supply Chain: Theoretical Mechanism and Action Path," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-19, March.

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