The Impacts of Carbon Policy and “Dual Carbon” Targets on the Industrial Resilience of Ferrous Metal Melting and Rolling Manufacturing in China

Greenhouse gas emissions are a major factor contributing to global climate change and have received extensive attention from policymakers worldwide. As a cornerstone of China’s industry and a critical foundation of the global manufacturing sector, the introduction of carbon policies could increase production costs and reduce international competitiveness, thereby impacting its stable development. How can carbon emissions be reduced to meet the environmental standards of the international community while maintaining global market competitiveness? This paper develops a comprehensive set of indicators to assess the industrial resilience of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry. These indicators focus on the industry’s development capacity, market demand transformation, potential for technological innovation, and ability to adapt to external shocks and recover autonomously. Using the difference-in-differences (DID) model, it quantifies the effects of carbon policies from China and the EU on the industry’s resilience and examines adaptation mechanisms within the industrial chain. It is found that ferrous metal smelting and rolling industrial resilience has been strengthening, significantly influenced by national research and experimental development (R&D), gearing ratio, and government science and technology investments. China’s domestic carbon policies and the EU’s carbon policy have profoundly impacted the resilience of China’s ferrous metal industry, fostering green innovation and the transition to a low-carbon economy while ensuring industrial stability and competitiveness.