Study on the Evolution of SCO Agricultural Trade Network Pattern and Its Influencing Mechanism

Investigating the evolution of the agricultural trade network pattern of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) countries and its influencing mechanism is of vital importance for clarifying each country’s trade position, ensuring China’s food security, and stabilizing the supply of major agricultural products. This paper adopts complex network analysis and the time-indexed random graph model (TERGM) to systematically study the evolution trajectory of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) agricultural trade network and its influencing factors during the period from 2003 to 2022. The results show that the SCO agricultural trade network has undergone significant evolution and development over the past two decades, forming an increasingly close, interconnected, and diversified trade network structure. In particular, China has played a crucial role in the trade network, and the adjustment of its trade strategy and the shift of its role from export orientation to import orientation have had a profound impact on the overall trade network structure. Moreover, over time, the number of core countries in the trade network has gradually increased, and the network structure has gradually developed in a more diversified direction. Through empirical analysis, it is found that the formation of the SCO agricultural trade network is the result of a combination of factors, including intrinsic reciprocity, multiple connectivity, and stability mechanisms, as well as extrinsic geographic, cultural, and economic factors. Among them, China, as the leading country, has played a pivotal role in promoting the development of the trade network.